April 25, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The main story today is that all of the indexes, with the exception of the Dow, closed at or above the 4/15 highs that were mentioned yesterday. The S & P 500 and the Russell 2000 closed decisively above the highs, while Nasdaq closed exactly at that level. Recent highs are the next hurdles. There are three possibilities for the market tomorrow, and at this point, nothing would surprise me. 1): A push to new highs given the multitude of positive earnings after a highly profitable week and the clearance (in most indexes) of the 4/15 highs. 2) An inside day with digestion or should we say exhaustion by many active traders as the volatile week concludes. 3) A gap lower with weak longs exiting and top seekers shorting (unlikely it seems, but you just never know). Semiconductors (SMH) and Retail (XRT) had firm days, while Transportation (IYT) lagged behind the rest of the market, but maybe not for long.
S&P 500 (SPY) Accumulation day in volume today but we still need to clear the 2013 high at 159.71. I would like to see the week close with Thursday's low defended.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Cleared the high from 4/15. As long as the 50 DMA holds, looks poised to take out the 2013 highs.
Dow (DIA) Lagging mainly due to the poor earnings in IBM. Has some serious work to do to get over the 4/15 highs.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) After an inside day, nice gap open over the 4/15 high. If today's low is defended, even with more digestion tomorrow, will look good going into next week.
ETFs:
GLD Gapped up and climbed over the 200 weekly moving average with the possibility of leaving an island bottom in its wake.
XLF (Financials) New 2013 highs!
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day, which means it needs to clear Thursday's high to gain traction. Holding the 10 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors) Another new 2-year high close-guess who is even happier than yesterday?
XRT (Retail) Cleared72.79, its 4/15 high, and went on to make new highs. One of the best performing sectors.
IYT (Transportation) Closed right at the 4/15 high.
IYR (Real Estate) Two doji days in a row, which means paused and ready to move one way or another. Testing the 2013 high.
USO (US Oil Fund) As illustrated this week, it had a big move today after the basing action. Ran up to, but not over the 50 DMA.
OIH (Oil Services) Ran to the 50 DMA, but it could not clear.
XLE (Energy) The 50 DMA remains resistance.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Holding 59.50 support. Ideally, this needs to clear 61.00.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Could not clear the 50 DMA.
XHB (Homebuilders) Cleared 30.00. 30.66 is the 2013 high.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Still needs to clear the 200 weekly moving average.
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