Weekly Market Outlook

Risk Off Accelerates

December 16, 2018


US equites remain under relentless pressure, giving up some hard-fought gains earlier in the week. Stocks dropped about - 2% on Friday and all key indexes closed negative for the week. Equity outflows hit $46 billion, a record according to Lipper Analytics. Unfortunately, rather than being a good contrarian signal this negative sentiment is likely to hang around like a bad smell for at least

Read More.....

Big View Weekly Video

Free Premium

US Equities & Comments

Based on the close of December 16, 2018:

S&P 500 (SPY) 269.40 is the number this must clear to improve outlook. Friday was a new closing low for the correction. Noteworthy, 259.85 is Friday’s low and the low from October. The low of the recent correction is 258.62.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 147.50 is the number we need to clear to change our short-term perspective to bullish. Friday’s break below 142 suggests 134 may be likely.

Dow (DIA) 233.20 is important support and the 2018 low made in April. And a close under 240.50 would make that more likely.  A close over 252 would be bullish.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Held the critical 160 level. Still needs to clear back over 168 to get positive for a mini to swing trade.


Chart Last Updated: December 14 2018

Click to enlarge

To see key chart levels click here.

Chart Last Updated: December 14 2018

Click to enlarge

To see key chart levels click here.

Category: Risk On/Off

How to Use the Equity Indexes Layout:

The image above displays price charts of the four major U.S. equity indexes in along with their MarketGauge Real Motion indicators.

The SPY is the ETF of the S&P 500 index which is the most widely followed and respected gauge of the U.S. stock market by professional traders.

The DIA is the ETF of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index which tracks 30 of the largest and most significant companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

The QQQ is the ETF of the NASDAQ 100 index which tends to have a higher concentration of technology stocks and excludes financial companies. The IWM is the ETF of the Russell 2000 index which tracks smaller capitalization U.S. stocks and tends to be the most volatile of the four indexes.

Each price chart has three moving averages. The 10-day moving average is magenta, the 50-day moving average is blue, and the 200-day moving average is green.

For a complete review of how to use basic price chart with moving averages please click here:
https://www.marketgauge.com/resources/mishs-daily-articles/the-power-of-the-200-day-moving-average/

How to Use the Real Motion Indicator:

The Real Motion Indicator is a calculation of momentum that is unique and proprietary to MarketGauge. The indicator represents the current period's momentum value with a red dot, the 50-period moving average of that momentum with the blue line, and the 200-period moving average with a green line. The horizontal black line is referred to as the 'baseline' and is plotted at the zero value to delineate positive vs. negative momentum.

Real Motion can be used to analyze and identify a number of different patterns and conditions that help us measure the strength of the trend or key turning points, however, it can also be a very powerful indicator even when used at a basic level. The simple use and interpretation of Real Motion is to read it in the same way you would read and look for trend strength on a price chart. When the Real Motion 1-period (red dot), 50-period and 200-period averages have the same pattern of stack and slope as the stock's respective price chart averages, then the momentum is in agreement with the price chart.

For example, when a stock price is over the 50-period moving average which is also over the 200-period moving average, Real Motion would 'confirm' this trend as having good momentum if its 1-period value is over its 50-period average which is also over its 200-period average (both are positively stacked and sloped).

One powerful pattern to watch for is the condition where the Real Motion indicators are stronger (or weaker) than the price chart vis-a-via their respective measures. Momentum, as measured by Real Motion will often lead price action and can help identify good trades earlier than other indicators. For more advanced patterns and uses of the indicator, please see the real motion indicator product section.