Archives: Mish's Daily

295 Is The Big Number

Geoff Bysshe | August 22, 2019

Today’s chart of interest is the weekly SPY. As you’ll see in the chart provided, 295 was resistance 3 times before the SPY made all-time highs. Now it’s been resistance for the last 3 weeks. The trend line from the Dec. 2018 low is based on weekly closes. The SPY closed under it last week. If SPY doesn’t close over 295 this week it will be the second close under the trend line. Get your

Yield Curve vs. Consumer

Geoff Bysshe | August 21, 2019

Grandma Retail had a good day. Target and Lowes jumped on strong earnings reports today suggesting that the consumer is still strong. Target is now at an all-time high. This doesn’t make me want to buy XRT, but it does lend support to the idea that the U.S. economy is not on the brink of recession because the yield curve inverted earlier this week. The market liked this news, but I think it’s still a

Tuesday’s Interesting….

Geoff Bysshe | August 20, 2019

Today’s commentary is by Geoff Bysshe, MarketGauge President, who’s filling in for Mish until August 24th. The weekly gold (GLD) chart is at an interesting level – the top of a channel and a 50% retracement to the 2011 high. Bull markets don’t end at 50% retracements, but will it pause? ETF Levels: S&P 500 (SPY) Support Friday’s high, 289.33 Resistance at 50-DMA and swing high area, 294. Russell 2000 (IWM) Support around today’s low, 149

Have You Ever Seen This View Of The Market?

Geoff Bysshe | August 19, 2019

Have you ever looked at the market this way? I’ll explain it after I explain why I’m showing it to you now. This may be different, but the perspective is powerful in understanding the condition of the market, and in managing the emotional rollercoaster that big up days (like today) can cause. More specifically, when there is a big up day, and it’s only the second day after a very negative day (i.e., IWM breaking

Naked Modern Family Charts Bare All

Geoff Bysshe | August 18, 2019

Last week we looked at the weekly Modern Family charts with Real Motion to identify momentum trends. Real Motion will not change dramatically in 1 week, so… This week I stripped the Modern Family down to line charts to focus on the primary closing levels (black lines), and weekly phases. Then I drew trends and levels that matter most – the red lines.    Here are the highlights: The only family member that has any

Parabolic TLT’s Have Been Here Before

Geoff Bysshe | August 15, 2019

Tuesday’s and Thursday’s are ‘interesting chart’ day and with bonds in the spotlight every day, this chart is worth a look. The chart of TLT has gone parabolic, but as I say in today’s title, “the TLT’s have been here before.” By that I mean, if you look at the Real Motion chart below the candlestick chart, the dots represent the daily momentum level. Real Motion users know that the peaks of these levels often

“There’s Always A Bottom Somewhere”

Geoff Bysshe | August 14, 2019

When markets get hit as hard and as continuously as they did today, it’s a good idea to step back and look at the big picture. Focus on the major swing levels of support. Last week I highlighted the importance of measuring against the June lows. Now they are in play. For XRT, it’s at the December 2018 low, which was also the same level as the 2015 and 2017 low! IWM is closing in

Watch Out If This Unpopular Chart Turns UP

Geoff Bysshe | August 13, 2019

Tuesday is interesting chart day. This chart is one that we use to in our Alpha Rotation trading strategy to assess the conditions of the market. It has an interesting, but complicated tendency to lead or confirm stock market swings. As a result, it’s current pattern is particularly interesting. It’s down 23% from its peak in June of 2018, but it may be time to pick a bottom. It has a very big divergence in

How Can You Trade A Known Unknown?

Geoff Bysshe | August 12, 2019

A “known unknown” means that we know there is something that we do not know. They can be good or bad. The markets have plenty of them, and right now I’d use this to describe the point at the protests in Hong Kong become the catalyst for the U.S. stock market to suffer steep declines. In writing the Market Outlook this weekend, I spent some time thinking about how to see this known unknown coming.

A Look At The Weekly Charts Of the Modern Family

Geoff Bysshe | August 11, 2019

It’s the weekend so here’s a summary of the weekly view of the modern family with a Real Motion chart. XRT is in a distribution phase and compressing between the 200-week WMA and $40. A breakout in any direction is worth noting. SMH continues to be the leading group and a trade above last week’s high could be the beginning of the next leg up. IBB is coiling between its 50 and 200 WMA. IYT