Archives: Mish's Daily

If It Looks Like Bear, and Acts Like A Bear...

Geoff Bysshe | December 16, 2018

The commonly excepted definition of a bear market is misleading and dangerous. “Bear Market” implies it’s dangerous to buy stocks, but based on the commonly excepted definition of a bear market, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes aren’t there yet. If you’re a regular reader of Mish’s commentary, this shouldn’t come as any surprise... Stocks are in a bear market now, and you should trade accordingly. At MarketGauge we call a Bear Market


Is Tesla Really Heading for Orbit?

Keith Schneider | December 13, 2018

The almost 1 trillion-dollar farm bill was passed by Congress yesterday, but it was passed over by the markets as all the key indexes closed mostly flat. The exception was the Russell 2000 I(WM), which was unhappy and closed down-1.41%.  This was strange considering the farm bill was designed to help the domestic economy and received approval from both parties (a rare event ). On a relative basis, the trading ranges for stocks were relatively


Bullish Pattern Thwarted by Tweets and Tariffs

Geoff Bysshe | December 12, 2018

There’s a lot of green on the screen today, but it probably didn’t feel like a very bullish day. Given a very unusual bullish pattern in the QQQ, I’m disappointed that the A.M. strength didn’t hold in that index. I’ll explain the pattern below. There are two reasons, however, why I’m not surprised that the A.M. enthusiasm faded, and didn’t recover. The first reason is one that Keith pointed out in this commentary yesterday. As


Sharks in the Channels

Keith Schneider | December 11, 2018

Equity Markets did today pretty much exactly what they have been doing since early October, reversing big moves, especially on the opening.  So here is the current winning formula …. if there is a big gap or vicious intraday move, fade it. So today, after some nasty downside action for equities in the overnight market the key US indexes gapped up over 1% which, by the end of the day pretty much evaporated into the


Stock Investors Hide Behind the Volatility Mask

Mish Schneider | December 10, 2018

At one point today, the Dow was down around 500 points. By the time 2/3 of the day ended, the Dow went to breakeven. At the end of the day, the Dow closed up at 245.30. It has gotten to the point where after a 500-700-point decline, any rally has one saying, “The Dow is ONLY down by 300, 100, etc. For some perspective, this volatility is disconcerting. Yet, the Dow and the S&P 500


The Market Withers in the Wind

Mish Schneider | December 8, 2018

Simon and Garfunkel wrote “Leaves That Are Green” to describe losing the love of a girl as she faded into the night. On my driveway, I found this lonely leaf that changed from green to brownish-red. Hence, my thoughts turned to the market and that song. Bulls have lost the love of the market as prices fade into the night. With another dismal week, what has become clearer is that the attempts to talk up


Is a Rally off the Lows Bullish?

Mish Schneider | December 6, 2018

So many are so quick to call a bottom once the market makes a new low or comes close to the recent lows, and then rallies. When this type of trading occurs, I like to go out to the weekly charts. And, I like to look at the weekly charts in my economic Modern Family. Why? Perspective. First, it cuts out a lot of noise when you go out in time. Secondly, it helps you


Market Trades Like a Bronco-Buster

Mish Schneider | December 4, 2018

I found this record at a flea market. It’s an antique that plays at 78 RPMs. I thought that the red color and the placement in a cloth sleeve could be useful to describe the market someday. And so it is. I saw an interesting statistic today. On February 8th, 2018, the Dow Jones had the biggest one day drop at 1,175.21 points. Since then, there have been four more record drops including today’s when


Where Transports Lead, Small Caps Must Follow

Mish Schneider | December 3, 2018

All last week we talked about the importance of the Transportation sector IYT, as a lead indicator. To repeat, “If IYT closed above the 50 weekly moving average, we surmised that that could be the start of a much larger rally into December.” And so IYT did and here into December, IYT held onto gains closing up .23%. However, we also said that, “IYT needs the other members of the Family to join in.” Focusing


Should Market Bears Contemplate A Sunset?

Mish Schneider | December 2, 2018

A couple of key levels may have the bears meditating about a long sleep. Yet, before they go into hibernation, there are also key levels that could leave them awake and refreshed come the dawn. All this past week I focused on the economic Modern Family and particularly the Transportation sector or IYT. I posted a weekly chart of IYT as well as discussed the game plan for traders, depending on where IYT closed on