Archives: Mish's Daily

Retail vs. Semiconductors

Geoff Bysshe | August 16, 2018

The retail sector was full of action today, but the XRT didn’t move. This is because the sector is not one in which its members are all benefiting from the stronger consumer and economy. For example, J.C. Penney, JCP, plunged 25% today. This is it’s biggest down move in history and puts it at it’s lowest price ever (dating back to 1929). At the same time, Walmart, WMT, gapped up 9% after reporting its strongest

Finally, This Sector’s at New All-Time Highs!

Geoff Bysshe | August 14, 2018

Yesterday’s bearish action reversed today, led by the sector we’ve been highlighting for some time – Retail (XRT). The next question is, does it have the strength to continue if the market doesn’t rally with it? Today it had the market on its side; the answer remains to be seen. Today, no bad news for the market was news was good news, but that’s not a long-term solution. For example, a lack of trade rhetoric

Two Cures For The Current Market Malaise

Geoff Bysshe | August 13, 2018

Stocks tried to shake off Friday’s bearishness this morning, but they couldn’t. There may be several reasons why, and I’ll discuss them later. First, the way in which the market acted today is worth noting. The SPY and DIA peaked at Friday’s high, as the TLT and VXX bottomed at their Friday lows. Meanwhile the strongest performer on Friday, IWM topped out near its floor trader pivot. The QQQ did break out over Friday’s highs,

Bulls & Bears Never Let These Sleeping Dogs Lie

Geoff Bysshe | August 12, 2018

While the common expression involves dogs, the analogy holds true for the market’s bulls and bears. As you’ll soon learn, a simple ringing of a bell will send these two dogs in the caption into savage frenzy! It was easy to anticipate that when the markets broke their compressed multi-day range that the reaction would be a significant move. However, it was not as easy to anticipate what the catalyst would be, or what time

The SPY Likes Friday’s! (TLT Loves Thursday)

Geoff Bysshe | August 9, 2018

Everything I suggested yesterday about the current compression in the SPY and QQQ setting them up for a big move is still true today, because… The squeeze is still on. The rules I outlined for playing the breakout still apply. One key point I’ll add is that the breakout will be most compelling if it happens in the IWM, QQQ, and SPY all on the same day. For most of the sectors, today was just

Why The Opening Range Will Be Very Important Tomorrow

Geoff Bysshe | August 8, 2018

On Thursday the markets may be particularly sensitive to the PPI data if it is reported as anything other than its expected .3% value. My reason for expecting a market reaction is not based on the state of inflation, but rather the squeezed state of the SPY and QQQ. Yesterday I discussed how squeezed or compressed markets tend to have big moves when they break out of consolidation patterns. I highlighted the Biotech ETF (IBB)

Forget Tesla. The Big Squeeze Is Here.

Geoff Bysshe | August 7, 2018

There are many ways traders define a “squeeze” in the markets, but regardless of how you define it, the expected effect of a squeeze is the same. Squeezes lead to big moves. There are several big squeezes in the market right now, but if you’re not careful you’ll get distracted by the wrong one! Elon Musk and Tesla are all over the news, and at the root of all the commotion is Mr. Musk’s disdain

Don’t Let The SPY Surprise You.

Geoff Bysshe | August 6, 2018

On the surface, today’s move in the SPY was not all that notable. It was up 0.4%, and its range was half that of its average volatility. It was, however, the third day of a powerful pattern. Last Thursday the SPY opened below a significant swing low which many traders could have seen as the beginning of a breakdown had it stayed there for more than a fleeting few minutes. Since that gap lower it’s

Market Sets Up For An Action-Reaction Collision

Mish Schneider | August 5, 2018

The men in the rowboat are rowing in opposite directions. Great juxtaposition and one that represents an accurate metaphor for last week’s market. Newton had a theory for that called the Law of Action-Reaction. “... in every interaction, there is a pair of forces acting on the two interacting objects. The size of the force on the first object equals the size of the force on the second object. The direction of the force on the first

A Market of What Is and What Ifs

Mish Schneider | August 2, 2018

This Is a washing machine. But What If a child could climb inside to enter the unknown? Think the stock market. The What Is: Bullish, with all indices strong on the weekly charts Happy, with the strong employment numbers and expectations they will stay that way. Confident, as reflected by the 18-year high in consumer confidence Satisfied, with the current monetary policy of gradually raising interest rates. Enjoying, an equilibrium between supply and demand Ignoring,