November 11, 2017
By Mish Schneider
A most interesting week in the markets.
Some notable phase changes:
Transportation (IYT) confirmed a warning phase. That means, the price trades below the 50-daily moving average.
In the spirit of Charles Dow and his theory, the Industrial sector made a new high mid-week while Transportation fell.
The presupposition is that there are more goods being made than sold. With demand slacking, it could be an early warning signal that the economy will take a downturn.
Regional Banks (KRE) confirmed a distribution phase. That means, the price trades below the 200-DMA.
Many institutional investors watch the 200-DMA and exit any long positions once that moving average is violated.
Regional Banks, as our Prodigal Son, typically rises as treasury yields rise.
KRE represents how robust economic activity is in communities rather than in states or in the nation at large.
KRE’s stark underperformance, compared to this week’s rising yields, does not paint a roseate picture.
Three major indices had inside trading days on a relatively quiet Friday. Furthermore, all four indices remain in Bullish Phases.
The S&P 500, DJIA and the NASDAQ 100 all made new all-time highs earlier last week. And then retreated.
Do the big gun indices now resemble twin peaks formed through the millennium of erosion?
Biotechnology (IBB), unlike Regional Banks, touched and then held the 200 daily moving average.
In contrast to the lack of confidence we see in Regional Banks and Transportation, the bounce in IBB could mean that speculators are on the sidelines, yet are encouraged to buy should the bleed in the weaker sectors stop.
However, unless IBB can clear 320, it’s not enough to spur huge buying.
Interestingly enough, it seems that all the bad news about the horrific brick and mortar retail sector is out. At least for now.
Aptly named Resuscitation Annie this year, Granny Retail (XRT) climbed back from the gutter to close over the pivotal 40.00 level.
That leaves IBB and XRT as possible market saviors for this week.
Going back to the warning signs, besides a declining transportation sector, IWM (Russell 2000), thus far, sits right on the monthly channel top.
With November ½ over and the holiday season about to begin, bulls want to see IWM hang on above the 50-DMA and stay in a bullish phase.
More importantly, IWM must hold 144.75 by the end of November.
Finally, the rise in yields or the decline in the 20+ Year Treasury Bonds as the market fell from the highs, intrigues me.
This could be a departure from the norm of a falling market equals rising bond prices.
If this year has proven anything to the old school, it’s that even peaks millions of years old, can crumble given a strong enough wind and adequate time.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. SPY closed right on the 258-pivotal support. An open below that cannot find buyers will be troublesome
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. 147 pivotal still as this holds on to the 50 DMA at 146.50.
Dow (DIA) Inside day. 234.56 the 10-DMA failed marginally making that area pivotal for Monday.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Saved itself by holding the 10 DMA at 153 now pivotal
KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day. Confirmed Distribution phase. 54.80 key weekly support failed. 53.50 next support.
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day sitting right on the pivotal 10-DMA at 102.60
IYT (Transportation) 168.45 KEY!
IBB (Biotechnology) 310 pivotal support held
XRT (Retail) That Granny knows how to work an oxygen tank- 40.50 in focus
IYR (Real Estate) Support at 82.00
GLD (Gold Trust) Could not get that second close over 122-why patience in commodities a good thing
SLV (Silver) Like to see this clear 16.30
GDX (Gold Miners) Needs to clear 23.10 with volume
USO (US Oil Fund) 10.80 support
XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) Cleared 35.52 the 50-week MA, which is a good risk point
TAN (Solar Energy) Looks good as it held and popped off the 10 DMA at 24.35
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 123.50 the 200 DMA
UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.37 the 200-week MA and 24.80 resistance