An Arrow to the Sky Can Ricochet to the Ground

March 26, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


How do you transport a thousand-pound bronze sculpture of a Native American aiming to shoot an arrow into the sky? Carefully. How do you trade a thousand-pound stock market that aims to shoot an arrow into the sky? Carefully. Uncertainty surrounds the market: The terror attack, the American Health Care Act, Immigration policies, unsubstantialted wire-tapping claims, Russian interference, no new tax or budget policies and so on. These uncertainties anchored a market that up until

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Skeptics and Upcoming Pyro Technics?

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider


Pyyrho -Greek Philosopher (The First Skeptic) The S&P 500 did the unthinkable, it actually had a  -1.2% down day last Tuesday. This action broke the 109 day streak of S&P 500 trading without a correction of greater than 1%. The last time the S&P 500 had a streak greater than this duration was in 1963, which ended on March 1st of that year and endurred for 155 days. As of the close on Friday, the

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The Market’s Patience Won’t Last Long

March 23, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Geoff Bysshe


Note: Today’s commentary is by Geoff Bysshe, President, MarketGauge.com The market spent the day waiting for clues about the likelihood of the healthcare bill vote passing tonight. However, the vote was postponed. Today the market was patient, but we shouldn’t expect that to be the case if Washington continues to delay or disappoint. When people are in a bad mood, they’re generally not very patient, and the same could be said for the market. Mish’s

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The Dangerous Price Level In IWM That No One Is Focused On (Yet)

Trades & Tutorials

By Geoff Bysshe


Tuesday’s sell off brought some of the major indexes down to some attractive levels. However, it’s also caused the IWM to flirt with a very dangerous condition that no one is talking about! In this video I discuss the importance of the recent lows in the IWM, and why it’s more than just another test of 133-134 level. In the video I also demonstrate how you could have anticipated the big breaks in the key

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The Writing on the Market’s Wall

March 22, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


First and foremost, my sincere condolences to the families of the victims in today’s attack in London. Although I use the sky to represent the “wall”, the writing has a similar intention. “The writing on the wall”, a Biblical story, appears after a King drinks wine from looted vessels seized at a destroyed Temple. An ominous message appears that the days of his Kingdom are numbered. Admittedly histrionic, my purpose is to illustrate that the

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The Market Wrangles Crocodiles

March 21, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Wrangler has multiple meanings. The definitions range from one who is in charge of animals to one who engages in lengthy and complicated quarrels. Bluejeans and Jeeps use “wrangler” to connote durability. Which definition describes the market action? Supervisory, quarrelsome or durable? Sister Semiconductors, in her recent supervisory role, today gave back the last four days of gains in one full swoop. Since SMH led the pack, as a wrangler does, perhaps the other part

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A Rally That’s Curly and Rusty

March 20, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Are your long positions and bullish biases starting to resemble a garden of curly, rusty steel? Do you feel like after you enter a trade you risk getting screwed? Do you see initial momentum on each trade followed by long periods of curly compression testing your patience? If you answered yes to all three questions, you are most likely a miniswing to position swing trader. You probably have a smaller portfolio right now. You may

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“Uneasy Markets, Uneasy Alliance”

March 19, 2017

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider


U.S. equities mostly inched their way forward this week, digesting another rate hike of .25% by the Federal Reserve. In fact, after the hike, rates dropped and equities rallied. The dollar dropped as well. Metals, especially gold and copper, ended the week strong after being under pressure for the past month in anticipation of the big event. Keeping things in perspective, short term rates are now at .75%, historically low. Generally, to choke off bull

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Does the Market Wanna Be Sedated?

March 18, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Sunrise Santa Fe, New Mexico. As I sip my morning coffee, I imagine the power lines as lines on a chart and the airplane a vertical price pattern gaining momentum. However, as a mode of transportation, the plane’s upward trajectory conflicts with the actual chart of the Transportation sector-IYT. As a key ingredient in the U.S. economy and a sibling in the Modern Family, Trans’ lack of upward trajectory sours the sweet lift my morning

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The Market Masks Many Faces

March 16, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


To the right is a screenshot taken today of all six members of the Modern Family. The dotted line represents the 50 daily moving average. The solid line the 200 day moving average. Semiconductors (SMH) sit smugly in a strong bullish phase well above the 50 DMA. Biotechnology (IBB) also sits well above both moving averages. However, a big difference not illustrated is that while SMH is on new all-time highs, IBB’s all-time high is

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Janet Yellen Presents: What Frightened You, Fed?

March 15, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


We placed a block of ice into the sink the other night and magically, Alfred Hitchcock presented himself. The famed director began every episode of Alfred Hitchcock Presents by laying the groundwork for the evening’s story of suspense and terror. In Season 7, on May 1, 1962 the episode called What Frightented you, Fred? aired. It’s the story of a prisoner that once released, prefers to return and remain in prison. The suspense and terror

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New Mexico R.I.P (Ripple in Peace)

March 14, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Today, news came out that New Mexico, our home state, has the highest unemployment record in the country. With a rate of 4.7% nationally, NM’s rate stands at 6.7% up from 6.5% a year ago. Here are the top 3 reasons why: Volatility in the oil and gas sector, which has led to layoffs Declines in health care and hospitality jobs due to uncertainty of the future of the Affordable Health Care Act NM Governor,

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Inside the Window of Opportunity or Risk

March 13, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Two out of the four market indices had inside trading days today. An inside day is when the current day’s trading range is literally inside the prior day’s trading range. Imagine inside days like when investors look inside a window and can only see a portion of the house. From that viewpoint, they pause and try to decide if they should enter the house or turn and run for the hills. In the S&P 500,

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When the Moon Hits Your Eye So You Capitalize

March 11, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


When the moon is full, the gravitational pull of the moon and sun are combined. Hence, the full moon exerts a powerful pull on the Earth. The “lunar effect” whether real or imaginary, has no scientific evidence to back the claim of its impact on animals, humans and/or the stock market. Regardless, reports of increased “lunacy” (Luna in Latin means moon) around the full moon are well documented. Given the market’s near certainty of an

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Hiddenburg? Maybe Not

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider


The Markets liked the payrolls data released Friday which reversed the steady declines (after the initial pop following Trump’s Congressional address), closing the week down .42% for the S&P 500. Moments after the jobs data was released, White House Press Secretary Spicer immediately tweeted that things were great. During the election, Trump stated that the published numbers from The Fed on unemployment were phoney and not to be trusted. Not so anymore, as Trump has

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In and Out of the Market’s Bulls-eye

March 9, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


“You sit on the bulls-eye and I will wrap my neck around yours to keep you there,” one Brontosaurus says to another Brontosaurus. If you can imagine the Brontosaurus outside the bulls-eye as the indices and the one sitting on the bullseye the Modern Family, you’ll have a pretty good idea of the market battle in play. Another battle in the market-the S&P 500 is down only 1.6% or so from the all-time high. A

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When Reflection Overrules Market Luster

March 8, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Sometimes, what catches the eye is the reflection rather than the thing itself. For quite some time, the thing itself has had enough shine to superficially attract onlookers. However, with the 5th day in a row of declines in the Russell 2000, many investors begin to look beyond the shine to the reflections. The Economic Modern Family holds up shiny objects to a mirror. When they all see the same luster, the optimisim of that

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The Market of Dragons

March 7, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


A huge fan of Game of Thrones, one of my favorite characters is Daenerys Targaryen, Mother of Dragons. After losing her husband and child, she helps hatch three dragons from their eggs. At times, although they regard her as their “Mother,” she struggles to maintain control over them. Much of the same can be said about the current market. We haven’t mentioned the Chinese Year of the Fire Rooster in a while. It’s ironical to

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When the Market Gives You Bear Fangs, Make Crystal Pendants

March 6, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Lots of folks got bit by a bear fang on Sunday. With good reasons. The Fed has yet to confirm or deny an interest rate rise. Unsettling White House tweet storms dominated the news. Rising geopolitical tensions in East Asia after North Korea fired four ballistic missiles weighed on stocks. Nevertheless, most of the market brushed off the bad news bear fang. Beginning the session with a gap down, the S&P 500 went from a

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Market Feeds Traders Their Just Dessert

March 5, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


A favorite anadrome: Stressed Spelled Backwards is Desserts. Last week ended with the market giving stressed out traders their just desserts. Stressed out traders makes justifiable sense. After all, like the photo above, the banana split looks tempting and delicious. However, after consuming one, the sugar high might make you feel queasy. Standing at the top of a mountain is empowering as long as you don’t look down. Buying at what could turn out as

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