Weekly Market Outlook

Risk Gauges Retreat Despite Rally

November 11, 2018

Despite the pre and post-election rally that resulted in 3 out of the four key US stock market indexes gaining nicely for the week, our risk gauges thought otherwise, slipping back to neutral territory. For tape readers, a failure here would be very disconcerting. October’s drop is now the second 10% drop this year. That is not a common occurrence when that manifests in all

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US Equities & Comments

Based on the close of November 15, 2018:

S&P 500 (SPY) Unless this closes the week over 275.30, today’s rally got us closer to a short with less risk.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 150.50 pivotal support. Overall, 154 big resistance so if 150.50 breaks, this rally was meager

Dow (DIA) Cleared back over the 50 DMA at 251. Pivotal support-also the only index that is still above the 50 WMA.

Nasdaq (QQQ) 170 resistance and 162.50 closest support. Also note this is back under the 50 WMA at 170.35.

Chart Last Updated: November 15 2018

Click to enlarge

To see key chart levels click here.

Chart Last Updated: November 15 2018

Click to enlarge

To see key chart levels click here.

Category: Risk On/Off

How to Use the Equity Indexes Layout:

The image above displays price charts of the four major U.S. equity indexes in along with their MarketGauge Real Motion indicators.

The SPY is the ETF of the S&P 500 index which is the most widely followed and respected gauge of the U.S. stock market by professional traders.

The DIA is the ETF of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index which tracks 30 of the largest and most significant companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

The QQQ is the ETF of the NASDAQ 100 index which tends to have a higher concentration of technology stocks and excludes financial companies. The IWM is the ETF of the Russell 2000 index which tracks smaller capitalization U.S. stocks and tends to be the most volatile of the four indexes.

Each price chart has three moving averages. The 10-day moving average is magenta, the 50-day moving average is blue, and the 200-day moving average is green.

For a complete review of how to use basic price chart with moving averages please click here:

How to Use the Real Motion Indicator:

The Real Motion Indicator is a calculation of momentum that is unique and proprietary to MarketGauge. The indicator represents the current period's momentum value with a red dot, the 50-period moving average of that momentum with the blue line, and the 200-period moving average with a green line. The horizontal black line is referred to as the 'baseline' and is plotted at the zero value to delineate positive vs. negative momentum.

Real Motion can be used to analyze and identify a number of different patterns and conditions that help us measure the strength of the trend or key turning points, however, it can also be a very powerful indicator even when used at a basic level. The simple use and interpretation of Real Motion is to read it in the same way you would read and look for trend strength on a price chart. When the Real Motion 1-period (red dot), 50-period and 200-period averages have the same pattern of stack and slope as the stock's respective price chart averages, then the momentum is in agreement with the price chart.

For example, when a stock price is over the 50-period moving average which is also over the 200-period moving average, Real Motion would 'confirm' this trend as having good momentum if its 1-period value is over its 50-period average which is also over its 200-period average (both are positively stacked and sloped).

One powerful pattern to watch for is the condition where the Real Motion indicators are stronger (or weaker) than the price chart vis-a-via their respective measures. Momentum, as measured by Real Motion will often lead price action and can help identify good trades earlier than other indicators. For more advanced patterns and uses of the indicator, please see the real motion indicator product section.