Another long day in the days of sell high buy low and oh, if it were only that easy!
I really wanted to see NASDAQ clear 87.88 on a closing basis. I really, really wanted to see it clear the 50 DMA (if the universe is listening.)
But, let’s look at the good news: S&P 500 and DIA close to the highs. Real Estate near the highs as well (although the artificially low rates huge reason for that). Retail eked its way over the 200 DMA-has to stick.Apple, Microsoft, reported well-in fact, all in all, many good reports thus far. The Financials are hanging onto the 50 DMA for dear life.
The not so good news: My poor small caps cannot catch a break. IWM needs to play some serious catch up.Rates are artificially low (oh wait-is that the good news or the bad news?)
Friday cannot come soon enough. Here’s a perfect example of testing one’s resolve and giving thanks for patience. Wednesday, SodaStream runs up over $4.00 on news of a possible deal with Starbucks. My subscribers and I watched it sail away just as we were about to get long. We don’t chase. Thursday,SodaStream is down 5.16%. A market full of one day wonders-scalper’s dream-swing trader’s dilemma.
S&P 500 (SPY) 187.15 area held with the April highs 189.70 Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all except IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) 115.93 the overhead 50 DMA. Held the fast moving average so that’s something. The longer this stalls, the worse it is in the intermediate term
Dow (DIA) April high 166.06 and now, 164.30 area to defend
Nasdaq (QQQ) A move over 87.88 that sustains will be a great way to end the week with all the big guns reported. Otherwise, hello 86.00
XLF (Financials) Holding the 50 DMA but now it needs to bust a move
SMH (Semiconductors) That high to clear from 4/10 is 46.03 with the 10 DMA at 44.96 the support
IYT (Transportation) Tried for new highs and must have gotten lonely at the top
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the fast moving average but now has to get back over 235.
XRT (Retail) Trying so hard to clear the 200 DMA-like IWM, needs to participate
IYR (Real Estate) March high 69.33-
GLD Wild and hard to assess until the month ends-hopefully that will elucidate direction
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: A weekly close over 42.26 will be an interesting breakout
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Subscribers: We are in over the 10 DMA and looking for continuation first up to the 200 weekly moving average.
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Watch the 50 DMA to clear
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: 44.60 is the 50 DMA
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Over 35.00 looks good
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Another one to watch for a weekly breakout over the 200 week moving average
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Unconfirmed bear phase
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: The 200 weekly moving average coming up
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Post Earnings: SWI If clears 43.80 and holds looks good for a swing to 45.80 or so
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OXY Reports May 5th Has to clear 97.84 now and hold 95.50
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
GD Inside day and since pivots are positive watch for it to clear 112.10-then it could go to 116 area-risk is 109.50
STLD Good monthly chart-like if holds 18.50
WAG Slightly negative pivots with 66.06support to hold and over 68.00 see a move to recent highs and beyond possible
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
C If clears 48.62 could run to fill gap at 49.67 and beyond-positive pivots
AMZN Reported-Had a slingshot low, like it on a reversal and a continuation trade over today’s highs
VMC A 2014 pick Reports May 8th. Like the move over the 10 DMA support 64.50 and if good, should clear the 50 DMA at 66.03
CIEN Reports June 5th-If holds 21.00 then still worth a look
MPW Reports May 8th Still has to clear 13.40 but looks good
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BBY Reports May 22nd Looks heavy with risk today’s high
MON Look for an OR high failure now
DISH Reports May 8th. If breaks 59.24 then could see another drop to around 55.00
Bye For Now!