The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed sharply unchanged. Only the small caps firmed (IWM) but never cleared the high from last week. All in all, today was more digestion than a game changer one way or another although the pros and cons are there. Pros: Good volume patterns at the end of last week on positive days, a hold of the 50 simple moving average in the major indices, strong financials as far as bank stocks go, strong retail and semiconductors, to name a few. Cons: The looming Temple of Doom candle high from May 22nd in the indices, a weak real estate and homebuilders group, rates rising, inability to follow through today, especially over last week’s highs in the indices, also to name a few. With pros and cons fairly evenly matched with a slight edge to the pros given the trend, the illustrious Tuesday should help elucidate.
S&P 500 (SPY) Digestion, low volume, hanging onto the fast moving average with overhead resistance to clear Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) 99.20 is last week’s high to clear.
Dow (DIA) 152.91 last week’s high to clear and today’s low a good place to hold
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 73.82 last week’s high with today’s low a good place to hold
GLD 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support
XLF (Financials) It’s all about the 80 monthly trend reversal that confirmed in May
IBB (Biotechnology) 180 has to clear otherwise under 176.75 renewed selling could come in
SMH (Semiconductors) Last week had a reversal candle at the highs which means 38-39.00 good range to watch for a break either way Subscribers: 39.00 next key area to clear-long on a swing to under 37.60
XRT (Retail) Doji candle which means tomorrow, could lead the way
IYT (Transportation) Confirmed bullish phase only not very exciting
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and red. The 200 DMA will not hold this up on any further weakness.
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. Subscribers: Holding above the 200 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: 43.80 important area to clear on a closing basis or still iffy.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) New 2013 highs
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Quiet
XHB (Homebuilders) Subscribers: Unconfirmed warning phase and a good place to look for shorts.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Not ready for a long yet
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CMI Inside day slightly positive pivots. Today’s low and S1 risk. And 119.50 next area of resistance to clear
GE Inside day. Now, 23.64 should hold with 24.14 the 2013 to clear. Could see 29.00 if the market doesn’t collapse
YELP Inside day. 30.18 Friday high to clear now.
KLAC 2 inside days. Some overhead resistance but like the risk to today’s low
BXP Inside day. On the 50 DMA therefore, can use S1 for a risk with add over 110-111 area
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
FDO Phase change to unconfirmed accumulation provided the 200 DMA holds
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
RL Warning Phase and inside day. Cannot clear 177 with today’s high 176.43
DVN 2 inside days. Today’s high max risk and like to see it break today’s low as well
VMW 2 inside days. Max risk today’s high and has to break today’s low
RDC Has to break today’s low and not clear 33.90
DE on the 200 DMA but a break of today’s low breaks it with good risk over 87.00
NFLX Underperformed with good risk to R1 220.04. Inside day too.
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
CNQ Inside day.29.47 good risk to R1 and has to break S1 and todays low