Market Analysis for Trading on 9/26/2013

Mish Schneider | September 25, 2013

New Trade: Long EWG on a 28.02 buy stop.

Name of Instrument: iShs MSCI Germany ETF

Current Price: 27.97

Sell Stop: 27.39

First target 28.99

Reason for trade: Gapped higher last week and post elections looks good to clear recent highs and beyond 
Existing Position: X Long 20.68

Current Price: 21.18

Stop Loss: 19.67 (raised)

First Target: 21.93 Take 1/3 to 1/2


Existing Position Long: XLF 19.97

***Sell Stop: 19.97 STOPPED OUT


Existing Position: Long: IYR 62.15 ¼-1/3 position left

Current Price: 64.40

Stop Loss: 63.49 (Raised)

Next target: Optional 69.49 sell another ½ of balance


Existing Position: Long OIH $45.47 (1/4 position)

Current Price: 47.58

Stop: 46.69 Raised

Next Target: Optional 49.49 to sell ½ remaining balance


Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18 ½-2/3 left

Current Price: 40.30

Stop: 39.18

First Target: REACHED! 40.59 Sold 1/3-1/2

Next Target: 42.91 for another ½ of the balance


I wish I had some amazing words of wisdom other than repeating what I have been already saying since the peak high last week. The small caps continue to try the hardest coming really, really close to the 2013 highs before retreating end of day. The Dow has now entered into anunconfirmed warning phase as it was closest to the 50 DMA and like a magnet, found it undeniably and uncontrollably attractive. The sectors and groups are busy correcting; the ratesare dropping and the emerging market ETFs are hanging tough.  There are the overachievers outperforming and the underachievers taking it real hard on the chin. Here’s something-the VXX-could be time to look at this archaic instrument as it seems to have matched the peak highs with a possible peak low.

S&P 500 (SPY) Law of attraction looks like the 50 DMA is getting closer.  That would change if it clears 170.50 Subscribers: Negative pivots in all indexes but IWM

Russell 2000 (IWM) 105.80 better hold or our hope will greatly diminish.

Dow (DIA)

Nasdaq (QQQ) Such an orderly correction but a correction nonetheless unless it clears 79.00


SMH (Semiconductors) Acting like the new IBB by barely moving

XRT (Retail) Not a pretty candle, but holding the fast moving average

IYT (Transportation) Predicts this sees the 50 DMA real soon

IBB (Biotechnology)  As the queen bee, she seems to be running low on worker bees

IYR (Real Estate) Held 63.85 but so what til it gets back over the 50 DMA

XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day

GLD Subscribers: Cleared the 10 DMA now looking at that upward sloping overhead 50 DMA

USO (US Oil Fund) August low 36.35 getting close

OIH (Oil Services) 47.00 area of support

XLE (Energy) Topping candle from last week still a factor

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Has to clear 66.80 now

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs keep it rocking

VXX Subscribers: Inside and doji day with 13.69 nearest support-like it over 14.09

Bye for Now!