Market Analysis for Trading on 6/5/2013

Mish Schneider | June 5, 2013

Note: Until the market shows a clear direction, there is no reason to push a new trade. The market is holding up, but vulnerable, choppy and hard to predict for now

Open Trade Update

Existing Position: OIH long ½ Position

Current Price: 43.26

Stop: 42.67 (Balance)

Target: 50.00-53.00


Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)

Current Price: 38.79

Stop: 35.79

Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet


Existing Position: XLF 1/4 position left from 18.38 entry

Current Price: 19.70

Stop: 18.77

First Target: Met and now have 8 ATRs

Second Target: Met at 20.00 -have ¼ position left


The market broke the 20 Turnaround Tuesdays in a row streak just in time to get the cliché “June Swoon” primed and ready! Low volume selloff in the indexes with the S&P 500 back under 164 yet holding Monday’s low. As I have written in the past, the market hates uncertainty. Until we get some clarity from the FED on the bond buying program (Quantitative Easing) specifically if they plan to continue it or not and if not, until when, we’re looking out our window at not one but two major fires burning in New Mexico and thinking-oh yeah- the symbolism!

S&P 500 (SPY) Held 162.66 with hump day around the corner that is now the official weekly low to hold or fail. If holds, 165 next resistance to cross Subscribers: Slightly Negative Pivots

Russell 2000 (IWM) 96.50 the low to hold here with really, 100 the point to clear Subscribers: Negative Pivots

Dow (DIA) Never crossed the fast moving average and a good time to mention that this morning, the market internals turned negative

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Barely holding 73.00 which again means a gap below should set the tone for lower levels unless it runs back above 75.00 Subscribers: Positive Pivots


GLD 137 resistance and 134 support with a nearly impossible read on the technicals other than the bear phase

XLF (Financials) Held the boxed in range and the 80 monthly moving average for now

IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the 50 DMA and had an inside day

SMH (Semiconductors) Good performance except for the new highs and close on the intraday lows thereby, getting us prepped for a possible reversal

XRT (Retail) 77.00 held for now but now has to clear 78.00 on a closing basis to return confidence

IYT (Transportation) Holding the 50 DMA. Now, like to see it return over 113.

IYR (Real Estate) Really close to the 200 DMA now

USO (US Oil Fund) Whiplash

OIH (Oil Services) Holding onto the 50 DMA for dear life and like again over 43.80

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day and super important to watch for overall sentiment on rates

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 key support

XHB (Homebuilders) Broke the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed warning phase. Subscribers: The Phases and Forecasts mentioned this sector for a short-therefore, if market continues to have issues, can look here

UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed phase change to warning with an inside day