Market Analysis for Trading on 6/29/2015

Mish Schneider | June 29, 2015

It’s The Same Old Song

Four Tops 1965

Last week, in honor of NASDAQs Four Tops at 111.16, 111.08, 111.03 and 111.13 all posted since the end of April through June 24th, I placed the Modern Family (IWM, XRT, IYT, SMH, KRE, IBB), and Cousin Eddie (GREK) in 7 Rooms of Gloom.

Gloomy, but not doomy depending upon where one looks in the Sheep pasture.

Some sheep are still peacefully grazing. Regional Banks certainly love the forbs of possible higher interest rates. Grandma Retail closed well over the pivotal point of support and not too far from the next hurdle for the upcoming week to clear-102.

Grandpa Russell 2000 got his fill after making new highs. On low volume, IWM corrected into decent support around 127.00. This can even handle a lower correction without upsetting the trend-a shearing so to speak, but far from slaughter.

Semiconductors had a rough end to the week. A bit more than a shearing, perhaps a few nicks to the skin, but not necessarily a slaughter there either.

Transportation, consensus would most likely agree, slaughter. With a close on new 2015 lows, many investors took on a more defensive tone since once a wolf enters the pasture, a good Shepherd protects the remaining flock.

Cousin Eddie (GREK), he paced the perimeter and dodged the wolf for now.

Hence, it’s with Eddie’s tenor we begin this week-pacing, fearful, and hungry. We look to theRussell’s to calm nerves and hope that the sacrificial Transportation sector sated the wolves’ lust for blood.

S&P 500 (SPY) 209.50 support, 210.80 pivotal Subscribers: Negative pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) Support at the 10 DMA and back over Friday’s high 128.34 calming

Dow (DIA)Over 179.85 better, over 180.24 good and with an inside day, look for this to hold last Thursday’s low 178.59. Then look at 177.10.

Nasdaq (QQQ) After the rough end of the week, it did manage to hold onto the 50 DMA and the bullish phase. Monday’s open should be key indication of next direction

XLF (Financials) Inside day. 24.65 support to hold

KRE (Regional Banks) Closed near 2015 highs. Prodigal Son!

SMH (Semiconductors) Ouch. We want this to hold up and not continue to drop like his sister Transportation has. Needs to get back over 57.40 or see a drop to the 200 DMA especially if tape is weak

IYT (Transportation) New lows for the year

IBB (Biotechnology) Correcting so will watch this sib to hold the 50 DMA.

XRT (Retail) Holding 100 and needs to clear 102

IYR (Real Estate) Holding monthly support with a ok volume possible reversal pattern

XHB (US HomeBuilders) Closed over 36.98- the highest weekly close since 2007

GLD (Gold Trust) Typical lack of follow through type action since April

USO (US Oil Fund) Noisy until it clears 21.50 or fails 19.00

XLE (Energy) New 60 day low reversal with average volume so needs follow through

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) If sees 40.00 again still a good low risk place to buy

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Under all support now and not that oversold either

UUP (Dollar Bull) The 50 DMA resistance after holding the 200 DMA support

GREK (Greece) If this holds now over 11.34 seems 13.00 will be the next hurdle

CORN (Corn) Last time this was over the 200 DMA was April 2014