Market Analysis for Trading on 6/19/2013

Mish Schneider | June 18, 2013

Trade Description:

Note: Until the FED policy is clear (end of this week) swing trades are not prudent especially with the overall market in the middle of its recent range.

Open Trade Update

Existing Position: GE Long 23.86

Current Price: 24.34

Stop:  22.79 (Raised)

Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off) Lowered

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Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)

Current Price: 38.75

Stop:  35.79 (raised)

Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet

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Existing Position: XLF 1/4 position left from 18.38 entry

Current Price: 19.87

Stop: 18.77

First Target: Met and now have 8 ATRs
Second TargetMet at 20.00 -have ¼ position left

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Market Analysis for Trading on 6/19/2013

Welcome to the continuation of the pre-Federal Reserve Meeting Week! After Monday’s action which began by exhibiting characteristics of a split personality, Tuesday the patient clearly visited a therapist and found some sanity with rates dropping some and the market running up another 138 points. Seems more obvious that the anticipation is for the FED to keep juicing. The volume today was less than on Monday. The daily chart patterns on the indexes crossed from the middle of the recent range into the top half of the range. The S&P 500 has more substantially cleared the 50 Daily Moving Average. The small caps are very close to the recent highs. Even AAPL-the new counter mover, closed red! All good in the bull hood, at least for now.

S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared 165.40 first hurdle. Now has to hold really 164.50  to gain momentum for taking out the May 22nd highs Subscribers: positive pivots

Russell 2000 (IWM) Cleared 98.80 to be the best performer. Close to the recent highs 100.38. Like when small caps are boldly present.

Dow (DIA) Cleared 152.88 today and now 151.25 is the new low to defend

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Could not clear 73.76, the same area that the other 3 did clear (high from June 10th). 2013 began with the leaders leading. AAPL is one major reason for that. But, if the rally is fueled by stimulus that is a practical reason why leaders may not be as responsive

ETFs:  

GLD 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support-with sentiment still bearish and looking more so now 

XLF (Financials) Took all day to get through 19.83 and closed and 19.86. Like the QQQ, not over the 6/10 high.

IBB (Biotechnology) Back to an Unconfirmed bullish phase-and with an inside day.

SMH (Semiconductors) How many of my loyal readers still do not know how much I love this group? Subscribers: Back at looking at 39.00

XRT (Retail) 78.82 next hurdle but good looking group

IYT (Transportation) Much better if today’s low holds up

IYR (Real Estate) Still uncomfortably close to the 200 DMA-and first place to look for shorts if market rolls over

USO (US Oil Fund) Top of a 2 and ½ month base. 35.00 will be interesting to watch

OIH (Oil Services) Since middle 2011, been forming a pretty good base, but still very much inside of it

XLE (Energy) Into June 10th resistance-good test to see what happens from here Subscribers: 81.68 the June 10th high

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries)  The reversal candle from June 11th is towering above. But, there is support below as well

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 61.73 the June 10th high

XHB (Homebuilders) Good example of a recovery from the 50 DMA

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Seems the most logical thing to wait for is a clearance of the 50 DMA

Bye for Now!