Market Analysis for Trading on 6/18/2015

Mish Schneider | June 17, 2015

Ja Ja Ja Janet And The Fed

Nothing much has changed for the Modern Family after the Fed forecasts hinting at two ¼ point raises this year. The division among certain Family members remains palpable.

Transportation for example, fell, making new intraday lows. Although Retail tested the important $100.00 level, Trannies are struggling with the talk of lower US growth predictions.

Regional Banks earned the rest (and could be more like a long sleep since closed near the intraday lows after making new highs) while Semiconductors and Biotechnology rose, most likely because our Granddad Russell 2000 got close enough to 127.00 to convince speculators that the market is strong.

Checking in with Cousin GREK- hey-wake up Eddie-we are checking in! And that about sums it up-GREK is taking advantage of the market’s averted attention to other matters and taking a snooze.

Commodities have had my full attention for a while now. Soft ones, hard ones-all have been basing holding multi-year lows.

New NASA data show that the world is running out of water. “Twenty-one of the world’s 37 largest aquifers — in locations from India and China to the United States and France — have passed their sustainability tipping points, meaning more water was removed than replaced during the decade-long study period, researchers announced Tuesday.”

Not too long ago, I used Mad Max’s box office success to turn your thoughts to what it will mean should water continue to become scarcer.

When commodities rally, it’s usually because of disastrous events. In fact, when I traded on the New York Commodities Exchanges I grappled with buying raw materials running amok because it felt like I was capitalizing on a coup, war, crop damage, drought, etc. Rooting for disaster?

No. But realistic about it, yes. I vowed that I would take profits earned from rising commodities prices and do something good for the planet.

I hope that perhaps at the very least, writing this daily is some small contribution.

S&P 500 (SPY) Doji day right on the 50 DMA. Hard to say where the trading range reconciles but it does look morel likely to up than down for now Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 127 (127.13 to be exact) the place to clear!

Dow (DIA) At this point, really should clear 180.25 the 50 DMA already if good

Nasdaq (QQQ) Confirmed phase change to Bullish-also choppy trading range

XLF (Financials) 25.20 is the resistance and support at 24.85

KRE (Regional Banks) Could be topping since had wide range with double the average volume

SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed phase change to bullish

IYT (Transportation) I thought this would do better with Retail-but nay. 148 support over 150 better over 152 was slow to the party

IBB (Biotechnology) More sideways

XRT (Retail) Confirmed phase change to bullish yet has to close over 100 to be a game changer

IYR (Real Estate) Looks better

GLD (Gold Trust) A close over 114 will get us interested

USO (US Oil Fund) Noisy until it clears 21.50 or fails 19.00

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Like over 43.00

EWY (South Korea) Subscribers: 54.50 support with possible reversal if clears 55.45