Market Analysis for Trading on 6/17/2015

Mish Schneider | June 16, 2015

“Don't Know If I Should Go Sailin Down No Hill”

Tuesday, without Cousin GREK’s help, the overall market, especially Granddad Russell 2000 and Prodigal son Regional Banks, rallied anyway.

Yet, not everyone in the Modern Family ignored the dense but bighearted cousin’s warning signs. Transportation is still not having any part of it, stuck near the lows established over the last couple of weeks. Tranny loves his Grandma Retail however. So, she’s vowed to sit around the pivotal 150.00 level, provided Retail holds and confirms over the 50 DMA and better still, Tranny will most likely pull herself over 152 if Granny Retail can close above 100.

Our ongoing miniseries did not conclude Tuesday’s session showing us any real coming attractions for Wednesday. To see how the members of our family reconcile or depart from further Greece woes, we have to wait until the Producer, Traffic Cop-whatever we wish to call the one holding the cards, (even more so than Cousin GREK it seems)-the Federal Reserve-shows a definitive hand.

Semiconductors and Biotechnology, as mentioned multiple times, do not need to lead. Nevertheless, interesting to note that both of these sibs are a really good indication of how many speculators are willing to come to or not come to the party. After all, US Investor Sentiment, % Bullish is at 20.04%, compared to 27.34% last week and 39.51% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 38.84%.

With a rate hike likely this year, (although many do not expect one to be announced for June), that will give the market and the fate of our Family, four more Fed meetings in 2015 to stress out over until a definitive statement is made.

In the meanwhile, Cousin Eddie (GREK), who’s quoted as saying, “Nothing between the ground and my brains but a piece of government plastic,” if we replace that with Prime Minister Alexis Tspras’ statement that the IMF has “criminal responsibility” for the damage caused by Greece’s austerity programs, we get the US Treasury Secretary urging CousinGREK to play nice, (for the sake of the US Family.)

You can stretch the allegory, but you can’t make this stuff up!

S&P 500 (SPY) Stopped just shy of the 50 DMA-not surprising as it sits and waits Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 127 the place to clear!

Dow (DIA) Has a couple of daily moving averages to clear-also not surprising since this is where lots of trannies live

Nasdaq (QQQ) Unconfirmed phase change to Bullish-just barely

XLF (Financials) Very strong ahead of Fed

KRE (Regional Banks) New highs-yay!

SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish if holds around 56.80

IYT (Transportation) Held 150-best I can write for now

IBB (Biotechnology) More sideways

XRT (Retail) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish yet has to close over 100 or under 96.00 to be a game changer

GLD (Gold Trust) A close over 114 will get us interested

USO (US Oil Fund) Cleared 20.20

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Inside day. Like even more over 43.00

GREK (Greece) If opens over 11.00 a good sign