Market Analysis for Trading on 6/17/2013

Mish Schneider | June 16, 2013

Hi ~Contact.FirstName~,

Trade Description:

Open Trade Update

Existing Position: GE Long 23.86

Current Price: 23.52

Stop:  22.49 (Also might be adjusted depending upon market condition)

Target: 29.25

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Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)

Current Price: 37.88

Stop:  35.79 (raised)

Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet

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Existing Position: XLF 1/4 position left from 18.38 entry

Current Price: 19.55

Stop: 18.77

First Target: Met and now have 8 ATRs
Second Target: Met at 20.00 -have ¼ position left

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After yesterday’s impressive rally over the 10 DMA in three of the four major indices, Friday was spent digesting these higher levels.  The 50 day simple moving averages in every major index are sloping up, and thus far have proven to be supportive.  However, all four indexes were unable to hold the 10 day simple moving averages and closed below.  Also, still nagging the indexes are the slingshot highs from May 22nd.  So, we have support below and pressure above, and that is leading to compression along the 50 DMA. The longer this compression lasts, the more forceful the move either way when the compression breaks.  Whether that is a breakout over the 10 DMA or a break under the 50 DMA, that remains to be seen.             

S&P 500 (SPY) Closed under the 10 DMA.  Held the 50 DMA both times it tested this month.  Subscribers: 162.7 area support, positive pivots.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day.  Needs to clear 98.70.  Subscribers: Positive pivots.

Dow (DIA) Closed under the 10 DMA.  Holding the 50 DMA.  Subscribers: Only index with negative pivots.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day, under the 10 DMA.  Subscribers: Needs to clear 72.92.  Slightly positive pivots.

ETFs:  

GLD 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support-with sentiment still bearish unless it gets back over the 50 DMA.  Positive pivots.

XLF (Financials) Holding the 80 monthly moving average.  Inside day, needs to clear 19.83.

IBB (Biotechnology) Wedged between the 10 DMA and the 50 DMA, which is sloping up and is good support. 

SMH (Semiconductors) Between an upward sloping 50 and a downward sloping 10 DMA. Needs to clear 38.44.

XRT (Retail) Closed above the 10 DMA.  Looks poised.

IYT (Transportation) Held the 10 DMA and needs to clear 114.02.

IYR (Real Estate) Climbed back over the 200 DMA into a confirmed warning phase.  Also confirmed a slingshot low.  200 DMA good support.

USO (US Oil Fund) Gapped higher from the converging moving averages and had a doji day.

OIH (Oil Services)  Closed under the 50 DMA, bringing this into an unconfirmed warning phase.  This looks like it can go either way.

XLE (Energy) Inside day.  Closed between the 10 and 50 DMA.  Needs to clear 80.90. 

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries)  Closed under the 10 DMA.  Holding 68.00 area. Under the 23 monthly.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Held the 50 DMA, closed under the 10 DMA.

XHB (Homebuilders) Confirmed bullish phase and had a doji day.  

UUP (Dollar Bull) Very oversold with an inside day. Subscribers: On sights for a reversal over the 200 DMA possibly-aside though now

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Seems to have bottomed, big eyes here on Monday!

Today's report was prepared by Matt Mullins, MarketGauge Trader.  Mish will be back on Monday.