Market Analysis for Trading on 6/14/2013

Mish Schneider | June 14, 2013

Open Trade Update

Existing Position: GE Long 23.86

Current Price: 23.68

Stop: 22.49 (Also might be adjusted depending upon market condition)

Target: 29.25


Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)

Current Price: 38.02

Stop: 35.79 (raised)

Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet


Existing Position: XLF 1/4 position left from 18.38 entry

Current Price: 19.81

Stop: 18.77

First Target: Met and now have 8 ATRs
Second Target: Met at 20.00 -have ¼ position left


After yesterday’s drop to the 50 day simple moving average, the bell rung this morning in a very uncertain environment. All eyes were on the 50 DMA, as we asked ourselves “Is the fifty going to hold and make a comeback, maintaining this wonderful bull phase. Or, is it going crack, sending the market into a potential tailspin?” It only took one test of the 50 DMA this morning to find our answer. It was smooth sailing once the S & P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq touched and bounced from the 50 DMA. In fact, all indices except QQQ were able to close over the 10 DMA. TBTs were down today and closed under the 10 DMA for the first time since June 6th. If the markets are to continue this move upward they will first need to take out last week’s high, and then the slingshot highs from 5/22.

S&P 500 (SPY) Back over the 10 DMA. Next hurdle is last week’s high at 165.40 Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all indices

Russell 2000 (IWM) Mentioned yesterday that a move over 98 will ease the pain. We’re all feeling pretty good now. 98.80, last week’s high the stop point to clear.

Dow (DIA) We need to clear last week’s high at 152.88.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Wedged between the 10 and 50 day moving average. The only index that did not clear the 10 DMA, which it needs to do for overall market confidence.


GLD 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support-with sentiment still bearish unless it gets back over the 50 DMA. Negative pivots.

XLF (Financials) Holding the 80 monthly moving average. Bullish engulfing pattern today and cleared the 10 DMA.

IBB (Biotechnology) Held the 50 DMA and cleared the 10 DMA. Not as good as some analysts expected considering today’s news from the Supreme Court.

SMH (Semiconductors) Wedged between an upward sloping 50 and a downward sloping 10 DMA.

XRT (Retail) Inside day over the 10 DMA. Needs to clear 78.40.

IYT (Transportation) Held the 50 DMA and needs to clear 114.02.

IYR (Real Estate) Climbed back over the 200 DMA into an unconfirmed warning phase. Whew! That was looking nasty.

USO (US Oil Fund) Cleared the previously mentioned level of 34.24. Now needs to clear 34.59.

OIH (Oil Services) Back to an unconfirmed bullish phase! Closed over the 10 DMA.

XLE (Energy) Bullish engulfing day. Closed over the 10.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) After yesterday’s inside day, closed under the 10 DMA into support. Under the 23 monthly.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Held critical support levels but could not close above the 10 DMA.

XHB (Homebuilders) After yesterday’s inside day, cleared the 50 DMA and is now in an unconfirmed bullish phase.

UUP (Dollar Bull) Very oversold. Subscribers: On sights for a reversal over the 200 DMA possibly-aside though now