Market Analysis for Trading on 5/7/2013

Mish Schneider | May 6, 2013

Watch for an Email Alert To Enter Any New Position

Open Trade Update

Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 ½-2/3 position

Current Price: 37.87

Stop: 35.79 (raised)

Target: 40.00

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Existing Position: XLF Long 18.38

Current Price: 19.06

Stop: 18.38

Target: 19.38 (You might have taken 20-25% off at 18.98 today. If not, next target for keeping ½ of the initial position is now 19.38)

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Existing Position SGG Long 62.90

Current Price: 63.77

Stop: 61.38

First Target: 65.90

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Market Analysis for Trading on 5/7/2013

Super low volume digestion day in the indexes after the exciting conclusion to last week may seem like a letdown. The gaps left from Friday in the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow all held up and for further confirmation of a runaway gap, need to continue to hold up. The Russell 2000made a new high close which could mean that money is rotating back to small cap stocks. Thelong bonds continued their decline which hopefully means the reliance on Quantitative Easing to keep the market solvent is abating. Along with small caps, the Transportation and Financial ETFs made new 2013 highs. These are all pointing in the right direction for banking on a continued improving economy.

S&P 500 (SPY) 161.00 good point to hold with 164 target Subscribers: Pivots positive in all indexes except DIA

Russell 2000 (IWM) 94.96 was the March 15th high which cleared. 95.50 is the new point to clear

Dow (DIA) If there is one place now that could be more vulnerable it’s here since a lower low from Friday’s low was made and it closed basically unchanged. Subscribers: Negative pivots so watch S1

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Would not be buying up here, but not seeing any reasons for concern if already long Subscribers: 71.91 gap low from Friday

ETFs:  

GLD Inside day. Subscribers: Good one to watch for range break either way tomorrow

XLF (Financials) Approaching some longer term resistance Subscribers: 19.38 a target or the 80 monthly moving average

IBB (Biotechnology) Tired after the possible exhaustion gap Friday

SMH (Semiconductors) Got to a top of a channel going back over 10 years, which means a bit of a rest or pullback not out of the question Subscribers: Any dip to 37.00 is probably a good place for this to reignite from

XRT (Retail) Inside day after making new highs

IYT (Transportation) 112.30 was the 2013 high until today. Subscribers: Will look for an opening range reversal against the old high thinking 116 could be next target  

IYR (Real Estate) Inside day proving it’s a bit fatigued but does not look done

USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed the accumulation phase

OIH (Oil Services) 44.00 area a little resistance Subscribers: Say hello to the 80 monthly moving average if it stays firm

XLE (Energy) Made new 2013 high intraday then closed just shy of the old 2013 high 80.14

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Has a gap to fill to 62.20 so risk/reward not optimal at these levels now 

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 58.50 now good support Subscribers: Long ½ position after the opening range reversal and ½ ATR

XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day at the highs 

UUP (Dollar Bull) Watching that 200 weekly moving average like a hawk

UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Subscribers: Held the inclining 50 DMA but still needs to clear today’s high and R1 to look like a better hold in store

SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: 63.10 is a good place to hold and watching to see if it can clear the 50 DMA 

Bye for Now!