Market Analysis for Trading on 5/15/2014

Mish Schneider | May 14, 2014

Bears and bulls frustrated-perhaps the Wolves of Wall Street will fare better tonight for the full moon!

Back to an unconfirmed warning phase in NASDAQ. The small caps continue their distress. The 200 DMA may not mean as much as the low from May 9th 108.28. The Dow has a possible reversal top after Tuesday’s shooting star pattern and the S&P 500 pretty much the same.

The flight to rates continued as it’s in the FEDs/Governments interests to keep rates low and continue to "monetize" the debt. Of course, if inflation starts to show up, that will destabilize the current FED rates equilibrium.

And losing control of rates because of inflation would not surprise me in the least.

So, until then, noise prevails, along with a trading range which supports the recent low volatility and the nominal fear of a major move down.

S&P 500 (SPY) 188.35 next point to look at Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed phase change to distribution

Dow (DIA) 165.45 next point to hold

Nasdaq (QQQ) Pretty much closed around 87.90 key support, making this the best place to look Thursday

XLF (Financials) unconfirmed phase change back to warning-remember, everything needs a second day to confirm

SMH (Semiconductors) Low volume unconfirmed phase change back to warning-remember, everything needs a second day to confirm

IYT (Transportation) Reversal candle possibly or just that digestion we anticipated

IBB (Biotechnology) Back in 2010, the rally started here. Maybe, this will take some leadership again. Maybe

XRT (Retail) Distribution day in volume and phase

IYR (Real Estate) Didn’t confirm the reversal candle so still looking okay

GLD Reconciled to the upside-question is will it stay there?

XLE (Energy) Doesn’t look done moving up

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs closed below 113.10 the May 2nd high so maybe this is still working a top-

IFN (India Fund Inc.) 23.49 the 2014 high

EWP (Spain) Subscribers: Over 42.23 looks good on a closing basis, especially on long term charts

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: In futures, a weekly close over 18.35 is strong or 58.90 in SGG

Bye for Now!