Market Analysis for Trading on 5/15/2013

Mish Schneider | May 15, 2013

Open Trade Update

Existing Position: OIH 44.44 (1/2 of your normal position size)

Position: Long

Current Price: 44.50

Stop:  42.24

Target: 53.00-55.00

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Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)

Current Price: 38.35

Stop:  ¼ position left stop 35.39

Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Existing Position: XLF ½ position

Current Price: 19.64

Stop: 18.38

First Target: Met
Second Target: 20.00

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Existing Position SGG Long 62.90 –OUT loss

Current Price: 60.77

Stop: 61.38 (Stopped out 61.29)

First Target:

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Market Analysis for Trading on 5/15/2013

I wonder how many are caught by surprise that the idea of the Federal Reserve backing away from bond buying and a strong US dollar would lead to the market making yet another new high. Defies logic, some would say; but whose logic? We saw the FED’s musings as an opportunity to shop in the riper sectors like Financials, Transportation and Retail. But, as it turned out, traders could have shopped pretty much anywhere with a few notable exceptions-gold, Apple, oil. So what now? The Runaway gap featured as a powerful chart pattern back on May 3rd has been amazing. The Russell 2000 got to the target I have been writing about as well as the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ –or close enough. Of course, profit taking is never a bad idea, making sure core positions are left on to run their course. It may also be time to start thinking about a hedge if actively long. One place to look at is VXX (The Implied Volatility of the S&P 500 Index.) That is at historical lows.

S&P 500 (SPY) Got to the top of a weekly Bollinger Band. Could mean nothing since the momentum is still quite strong. At the very least, anyone late to the party-well, you’re late! Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all indexes

Russell 2000 (IWM) 97-98.00 was my reasonable target with today’s high 98.03.

Dow (DIA) Got to a target today. Now, there is a big difference in predicting a top versus knowing when the risk is crazy. Yup, the latter.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 74.00 a target with today’s high 73.74. But no reason 77-80.00 not in the cards only AAPL might make that harder to achieve.

ETFs:  

GLD Is it me or did this put in an okay performance considering how crushed it should have been? Of course, that’s a relative thought as it is in a bear phase after all.   

XLF (Financials) 19.35 now support to hold

IBB (Biotechnology) What’s higher than 100% overbought on the weekly relative strength indicator? Like Spinal Tap can we get that amp to 11?

SMH (Semiconductors) 2 day correction with 38.00 support Subscribers: 2 days under pivots with R1 and today’s high lining up

IYT (Transportation) 116 target for now.

IYR (Real Estate) Housing starts coming up later this week

USO (US Oil Fund) Subscribers: 4 days under pivots which means a move back over 33.65 the 200 DMA also lines up with the FTPs

OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high and if clears, a very bullish sign

XLE (Energy) Through 81.00 with little pain

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries)  WOW

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 resistance cleared today breaking the lower highs pattern established this year Subscribers: 60.85 next point to clear

UUP (Dollar Bull) Made a new 2013 high today-22.90 area next resistance

UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Subscribers: Watching the 50 DMA

SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Out of the trade today-the strong dollar was too much for it

RSX (Russia) Subscribers: 4 day correction with today’s low a good risk should this clear R1 27.39

Bye for Now!

 

New Trade:

Instrument Name:

Position:

Stop:

Current Price:

First Target:

Trade Description:

Open Trade Update

Existing Position: OIH 44.44 (1/2 of your normal position size)

Position: Long

Current Price: 44.50

Stop:  42.24

Target: 53.00-55.00

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)

Current Price: 38.35

Stop:  ¼ position left stop 35.39

Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Existing Position: XLF ½ position

Current Price: 19.64

Stop: 18.38

First Target: Met
Second Target: 20.00

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Existing Position SGG Long 62.90 –OUT loss

Current Price: 60.77

Stop: 61.38 (Stopped out 61.29)

First Target:

***********************************************

I wonder how many are caught by surprise that the idea of the Federal Reserve backing away from bond buying and a strong US dollar would lead to the market making yet another new high. Defies logic, some would say; but whose logic? We saw the FED’s musings as an opportunity to shop in the riper sectors like Financials, Transportation and Retail. But, as it turned out, traders could have shopped pretty much anywhere with a few notable exceptions-gold, Apple, oil. So what now? The Runaway gap featured as a powerful chart pattern back on May 3rd has been amazing. The Russell 2000 got to the target I have been writing about as well as the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ –or close enough. Of course, profit taking is never a bad idea, making sure core positions are left on to run their course. It may also be time to start thinking about a hedge if actively long. One place to look at is VXX (The Implied Volatility of the S&P 500 Index.) That is at historical lows.

S&P 500 (SPY) Got to the top of a weekly Bollinger Band. Could mean nothing since the momentum is still quite strong. At the very least, anyone late to the party-well, you’re late! Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all indexes

Russell 2000 (IWM) 97-98.00 was my reasonable target with today’s high 98.03.

Dow (DIA) Got to a target today. Now, there is a big difference in predicting a top versus knowing when the risk is crazy. Yup, the latter.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 74.00 a target with today’s high 73.74. But no reason 77-80.00 not in the cards only AAPL might make that harder to achieve.

ETFs:  

GLD Is it me or did this put in an okay performance considering how crushed it should have been? Of course, that’s a relative thought as it is in a bear phase after all.   

XLF (Financials) 19.35 now support to hold

IBB (Biotechnology) What’s higher than 100% overbought on the weekly relative strength indicator? Like Spinal Tap can we get that amp to 11?

SMH (Semiconductors) 2 day correction with 38.00 support Subscribers: 2 days under pivots with R1 and today’s high lining up

IYT (Transportation) 116 target for now.

IYR (Real Estate) Housing starts coming up later this week

USO (US Oil Fund) Subscribers: 4 days under pivots which means a move back over 33.65 the 200 DMA also lines up with the FTPs

OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high and if clears, a very bullish sign

XLE (Energy) Through 81.00 with little pain

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries)  WOW

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 resistance cleared today breaking the lower highs pattern established this year Subscribers: 60.85 next point to clear

UUP (Dollar Bull) Made a new 2013 high today-22.90 area next resistance

UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Subscribers: Watching the 50 DMA

SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Out of the trade today-the strong dollar was too much for it

RSX (Russia) Subscribers: 4 day correction with today’s low a good risk should this clear R1 27.39