Market Analysis for Trading on 4/25/2014

Mish Schneider | April 24, 2014

Another long day in the days of sell high buy low and oh, if it were only that easy!

I really wanted to see NASDAQ clear 87.88 on a closing basis. I really, really wanted to see it clear the 50 DMA (if the universe is listening.)

But, let’s look at the good news: S&P 500 and DIA close to the highs. Real Estate near the highs as well (although the artificially low rates huge reason for that). Retail eked its way over the 200 DMA-has to stick. Apple, Microsoft, reported well-in fact, all in all, many good reports thus far. The Financials are hanging onto the 50 DMA for dear life.

The not so good news: My poor small caps cannot catch a break. IWM needs to play some serious catch up. Rates are artificially low (oh wait-is that the good news or the bad news?)

Friday cannot come soon enough. Here’s a perfect example of testing one’s resolve and giving thanks for patience. Wednesday, SodaStream runs up over $4.00 on news of a possible deal with Starbucks. My subscribers and I watched it sail away just as we were about to get long. We don’t chase. Thursday, SodaStream is down 5.16%. A market full of one day wonders-scalper’s dream-swing trader’s dilemma.

S&P 500 (SPY) 187.15 area held with the April highs 189.70 Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all except IWM

Russell 2000 (IWM) 115.93 the overhead 50 DMA. Held the fast moving average so that’s something. The longer this stalls, the worse it is in the intermediate term

Dow (DIA) April high 166.06 and now, 164.30 area to defend

Nasdaq (QQQ) A move over 87.88 that sustains will be a great way to end the week with all the big guns reported. Otherwise, hello 86.00

XLF (Financials) Holding the 50 DMA but now it needs to bust a move

SMH (Semiconductors) That high to clear from 4/10 is 46.03 with the 10 DMA at 44.96 the support

IYT (Transportation) Tried for new highs and must have gotten lonely at the top

IBB (Biotechnology) Held the fast moving average but now has to get back over 235.

XRT (Retail) Trying so hard to clear the 200 DMA-like IWM, needs to participate

IYR (Real Estate) March high 69.33-

GLD Wild and hard to assess until the month ends-hopefully that will elucidate direction

EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: A weekly close over 42.26 will be an interesting breakout

IFN (India Fund Inc.) Subscribers: We are in over the 10 DMA and looking for continuation first up to the 200 weekly moving average.

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Watch the 50 DMA to clear

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: 44.60 is the 50 DMA

CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Over 35.00 looks good

BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Another one to watch for a weekly breakout over the 200 week moving average

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Unconfirmed bear phase

JO (Coffee) Subscribers: The 200 weekly moving average coming up

Bye for Now!