Market Analysis for Trading on 4/13/2015

Mish Schneider | April 12, 2015

The four major markets – SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM began the week at the low end of their several week range’s and worked their way higher to close at their weekly highs. They’re all now closing in on their respective all-time highs set earlier this year.

Since all but the strongest of the group (IWM) have essentially been stuck in a range since February, a continued move higher would represent a breakout of a significant consolidation period. However, the year to date (YTD) highs have proven to be formidable resistance so it seems likely that any rally will include several days of tighter consolidation at these YTD highs.

Next week earnings season heats up and this could provide the boost this market needs to breakout so keep your ears open to which way earnings announcements push the market – and why (i.e. reported eps, future guidance, revenue growth, etc)! *

S&P 500 (SPY) Rallied into March resistance at 210 now needs to hold 209.35 as support. Still range bound until this clears 212.24 the Feb. highs. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) Held up our modern family with a narrow range doji day. However it did close over 125.60. This now needs to hold at this level and clear 126.32 to be at new highs.

Dow (DIA) Cleared 180.16 and held on the close. Want to see this hold 178.88 the 50 DMA and clear 181.75

Nasdaq (QQQ) Continued its rally from the 100 DMA With a little help from the semiconductor and Biotech sectors. Now needs to clear 108.20 and hold first 107 and if that fails 106.29 the 50 DMA to hold.

XLF (Financials) Confirmed Bullish Phase. Still consolidating at the 100 DMA. Has to clear 24.30 and hold 24.17 on a closing basis

KRE (Regional Banks) Range bound under its 6 month calendar range high at 41.06 and resistance at 41.20. Needs to continue to hold 40.85 on a closing basis

SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed Return to a Bullish Phase. Thanks to some help from INTC and ALTR. Now needs to hold 55.78 and clear 56.73.

IYT (Transportation) Held the 200 DMA and rallied to resistance at 157.40 area confirmed its phase change to Warning Really like to see this hold the 200 DMA.

IBB (Biotechnology) Still trying to negate the topping pattern put in on 3/20/2015. 358.84 next resistance to clear and needs to clear 363.63 to negate the pattern, 346.53 a near term support level.

XRT (Retail) Still consolidating near the highs with an inside day. Needs to first clear 102 and then 102.50 to really get going again.

IYR (Real Estate) Still continues to look week on fears of interest rate fluctuations. Needs to hold support at 76.30 area now, or else see a visit down to 75.71 the 200 DMA

ITB (US Home Construction) Failed the 10 DMA with an inside doji day. Watch for this to clear 28.50. Under 27.83 spells trouble.

GLD (Gold Trust) Nice gap back to an unconfirmed recovery phase with 114-116 still the range to watch for now.

USO (US Oil Fund) With production dropping in terms of the number of operational oil rigs continually decreasing we may begin to see some semblance of order return. Held the 50 DMA with an inside day needs to hold at 18.07 and clear 18.75.

OIH (Oil Services) Took a day to digest yesterday’s big move. Now needs to hold at 35.59 and clear 37.00.

XLE (Energy) 78.00 support and over 81.00 looks great.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Somewhat range bound until it can clear 54.21

UNG (US NatGas Fund) New all time low close!

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Another great performance with the help of SUNE and SPWR.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day sandwiched between the 10 and 50 DMA’s

UUP (Dollar Bull) Having cleared 26 this now looks like it will go higher yet. Next resistance at 26.50 and if clears that all time highs are at 27.19

IFN (India Fund Inc.) Confirmed the phase change back to bullish with an inside day.

EWP (Spain) Found support at 34.90

EWW (Mexico) After failing the 60 level I’d like to see this hold 59.52

EWG (Germany) Nice gap back off the 10 DMA

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Finally took a day to rest with an inside day.

EWY (South Korea) Gapped right to the 200 DMA and then pushed through to give us an unconfirmed phase change to accumulation.

RSX (Russia) After rallying for 6 days in a row this decided to correct back down to the 18.80 area. Needs to hold at 18.21 the 10 DMA

CORN (Corn) Over 26.00 gets interesting

SGG (Sugar) 13.00 in cash next place to clear

JO (Coffee) Inside day