Market Analysis for Trading on 4/1/2015

Mish Schneider | March 31, 2015

Could it be that there really was “Terror at 18,000 in the Dow?

Okay, so maybe the word “terror” is a bit of a hyperbole; but, we saw that level scraped on Monday followed by a substantial retreat from it on Tuesday. The mediocre news is that the Russell 2000s is in a confirmed bullish phase. IWM also had an inside day (when the range is within the range of the prior trading day.)

So what’s the scary news? Besides everything else? The Dow, NASDAQ and the S&P 500 ended the session breaking the 50 DMA going back to unconfirmed warning phases-or what has been in 2015, a ping-pong match between the bullish and warning phases with the 50 DMA the net.

Checking in with the modern family, IWM had the inside day, retail (XRT) made new highs and then retreated with the market, regional banks (KRE) also had an inside day (impressive), transportation (IYT) fell but not too badly (actually outperformed), semiconductors (SMH) had an inside day though returned to an unconfirmed warning phase) and biotechnology (IBB) did its job, which is to not fall completely apart.

Since I have been referencing sheep and shepherds all year thus far, the number of Bible quotes that come up when I google either word is palpable. Therefore, I think it’s safe to say, “The Market Giveth and the Market Taketh Away.”

And all of a sudden, I’m reminded of an oldie but goodie, “The Weight” by The Band.

“I pulled into Nazareth, was feelin' about half past dead

I just need some place where I can lay my head.

Hey, mister, can you tell me where a man might find a bed?

He just grinned and shook my hand, "no" was all he said.”

Welcome to the market’s giant sheep pasture, where we graze, scatter, poop and return hungry.

S&P 500 (SPY) Failed 208, so now back to looking at 204. Subscribers: Negative Positive in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 123.70 support and over 125 should help the rest of the market

Dow (DIA) Not only broke the 50 DMA but landed smack on the 100 DMA. 177 support and 178.50 resistance to clear

Nasdaq (QQQ) 104.50 major support with 107 major resistance

XLF (Financials) Return to an unconfirmed Warning Phase, cha cha cha

KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day which keeps me friendly to this group

SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day but under the 50 DMA.

IYT (Transportation) 155.28 the place to hold

IBB (Biotechnology) 353 Resistance and 335 major support

XRT (Retail) Maybe a reversal candle, but premature to call that just yet

IYR (Real Estate) Lagging due to interest rate concerns-over 80.00 could have a bounce and under 78.60 see more downside

ITB (US Home Construction) Great performance but fell a bit from the new highs with the market and another possible reversal candle

GLD (Gold Trust) 115 now resistance and is hugging the 10 DMA

XLE (Energy) Looking for a close above 78.00

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Like this over 50.00 if sticks

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Looking for a new buy

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs should be quiet til next week after the jobs report

UUP (Dollar Bull) Good comeback since it held 25.50 level

EEM (Emerging Markets) confirmed Recovery Phase and still basing

RSX (Russia) Like to see it hold around 17.00

BAL (Cotton) Basing maybe