Market Analysis for Trading on 3/28/2014

Mish Schneider | March 27, 2014

Perhaps S&P 500 holding the 50 DMA is a sign that the worst for this week is over. Perhaps, it just means the short shooters show up at the end of the week, taking it down beneath.

Certainly looking at closing prices on the indices, one can surmise, that the market remains vulnerable with the freshest of sellers a bit dried up for now.

Loving the commodities plays this year-especially the softs. We rode coffee up-now no position, took multiple profits in corn-still friendly, been in and out of sugar, cotton, oil and energy. All in all, the best places to be, giving us ample patience to wait out the gyrations of the equities markets, cherry picking those with the best risks.

On the equities side of market life-right now, the real estate sector intrigues me. Held the 50 DMA and a weekly close over 67.00 defends the weekly moving average. Having spent years under water, holding these levels could easily give the group new life.

Perhaps the best sign of the day is the volatility index which sold off significantly looking like a trendline break possible then trip closer back to the recent lows

S&P 500 (SPY) 186.05 and above new life. Otherwise, all eyes on the 50 DMA Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 115.49 is the 50 DMA-will be real interesting to see if this holds end of week

Dow (DIA) Best performing group-162.50 good level to cross and the 50 is sitting there also beckoning

Nasdaq (QQQ) I would find it hard to believe this can cross back over the 50 DMA so eyes here for a reality check if the other indices firm

XLF (Financials) 21.70 the 50 DMA 22.20 the point to clear

SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed a top for now-watching how far it corrects

IYT (Transportation) Hello 50 DMA

IBB (Biotechnology) Held the January opening prices-watch to see if that support give it more bounce

XRT (Retail) My vote for most likely to visit the underlying weekly moving average

IYR (Real Estate) See above

GLD 125.65 if clears would not rules this out

USO (US Oil Fund) gap and hammer doji-over 37.34 negates the island top

OIH (Oil Services) Inside day near the highs

XLE (Energy) Couldn’t quite close over 88.00 but good clearance of that as the week comes to an end, is encouraging

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Gave us the strength we sought-now has to clear 71.00 really

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Where she stops nobody knows

UUP (Dollar Bull) Looks to be basing

EEM (Emerging Markets) In an unconfirmed accumulation phase

EWG (Germany) Confirmed bullish phase

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: confirmed phase change to recovery

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: A weekly close over 42.50 keeps this on the watch for next week

CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Over the 200 DMA

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: This looks like the new coffee trade of the spring

Bye for Now!