Market Analysis for Trading on 3/10/2014

Mish Schneider | March 8, 2014

The most excruciating virtue to master as a human is patience. Traders find mastering that virtue exponentially more difficult.

Patience however, is typically key-and right now it’s downright crucial! With the looming situation in the Ukraine-and every tweet about it, rumor or true, a market mover, the uncertainty and noise must be tuned out.

That leaves the technical signals which are equally uncertain. First, there is the possible blow off top in the Russell 2000s which, although have been followed by sideways price action last week, did nothing more than leave us hanging on whether or not the top is in place or the huge volume from last Tuesday will ultimately serve as a launching pad.

Second, the Volatility Index firmed on Friday-a good hedge and important indicator-again of uncertainty. Third, the Dow or DIA tried and tried to clear January resistance having yet to do so. NASDAQ, made new highs on Friday and closed weak or at least with a large red candle taking out last Tuesday through Thursday’s price action.

Finally, the S&P 500 made new highs on Friday and looks the strongest heading into this week. So here we sit-patient, mildly long equities, commodities, hedged with the Volatility Index and as patient as a stone.

S&P 500 (SPY) This barely eked out an accumulation day in volume but did manage to close green. Now, Friday’s low is important to hold Subscribers: Negative pivots in all except DIA

Russell 2000 (IWM) Sideways. Needs to take out 120.58 or if breaks 118 trouble ahead.

Dow (DIA) Gets through 2014 resistance and everyone will feel a lot better-the bulls anyway

Nasdaq (QQQ) Not sure which looked more tired by the end of last week-this or me.

XLF (Financials) Stands alone on new highs like a beacon or a lonesome dove

SMH (Semiconductors) The new biotech of 2014-been sayin that

IYT (Transportation) New highs on a doji day

IBB (Biotechnology) 248 the 50 DMA

XRT (Retail) Liked the jobs report and the increase in consumer credit.

IYR (Real Estate) Like to see this get back to 67.00 for a fresh lower risk buy

XHB (Homebuilders) Subscribers: Let’s look at this as a Condition 2 correction which if clear over 33.75 Monday gives a good risk to Friday’s low.

GLD Chop chop.

USO (US Oil Fund) Needs to fill the gap at the island top to resume the up move

XLE (Energy) Has to clear 88.48 once and for all

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Like this if holds Friday low

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 70.00 main support and looking like rates will firm provided geopolitical news doesn’t head investors to a safety flight

EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: Mondays’s range break will be telling one way or another

KRE (Regional Banks) New highs

CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Stopped at the 200 DMA and watching 32.50 level to hold

JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Still resting

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Didn’t close above the 65 week moving average which has to clear to keep this going

Bye for Now!