Market Analysis for Trading on 1/29/2015

Mish Schneider | January 29, 2015

I don’t know about you all, but I came into work today with my skis, wingsuit and parachuteat the ready. Although the Shane McConkey story paralleled extreme sports and trading as an extreme sport, calm prevailed my mood as I watched the January Calendar Range hold like a rock in three of the four indices (S&P 500 SPY, Russell 2000s IWM and NASDAQ QQQ.)

After oil’s big drop, I remain on the lookout for a blow off bottom. Likewise, I continue to watchinterest rates or long bonds for a blow off top. Both blow offs have yet to happen, but a girl can hope since I cannot imagine a better shot of adrenaline to the market that will finally stir it from its now 19 day trading range.

Small caps (IWM) recaptured the 50 daily moving average putting it back into an unconfirmed bullish phase. Apple and Facebook accomplished their Herculean task, thank you very much. And the financial sector, XLF, touched down on the major 200 DMA then turned to close above key pivots and near the intraday highs.

So as much I would like a tranquil end of the week/month on Friday, I have trained for a fight to the finish and suspect the market will go the full 10 rounds. Can I wish for a TKO to the bears? A strong weekly close and hello February-almost time for the horse to head back to its stable and the sheep to freely roam in the meadow.

S&P 500 (SPY) Warning Phase Held January low at 198.55. A move over 202.60 should help that we are looking at the 50 DMA Subscribers: Negative pivots in SPY QQQ Positive in DIAIWM

Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed Bullish Phase Or the Cybil of the market. Over 117.30 the 50 DMA. Should stick or looking at underlying support 115.30 with 114.20 the January low

Dow (DIA) Warning Got back over 172.12 after breaking the January low. 174.80 next hurdle if it holds that low

Nasdaq (QQQ) Warning Phase Over 102.10 better if can sustain support at 100.95

XLF (Financials) Good bounce off the 200 DMA and now, over 23.55 could be worst is over

SMH (Semiconductors) If this clears 54.38 then it clears a lot of resistance

IBB (Biotechnology) Whew, back over the January Calendar Range high

XRT (Retail) A definite place to look for strength as many names still setup well

IYR (Real Estate) Held 81.89 which is the support to hold

ITB (US Home Construction) Did great and now over 26.16 looks even better

GLD (Gold Trust) Landed on the January Calendar Range high and the 200 DMA-moment of truth

USO (US Oil Fund) 16.90 is a good place to clear to see yet another possible new low intact and done with for now

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Getting ready to jump in for a position swing trade should this hold these levels on Friday

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Inside day near the highs which means under 134.25 would be a good reason to feel more confident in the market

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.70 support

EWG (Germany) Looks pretty good

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Good comeback over critical area and now over 42.80 better

BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Has my attention-best I can say