Market Analysis for Trading on 11/8/2013

Mish Schneider | November 8, 2013



Existing Position: Long FITB 19.10

Name of Instrument: Fifth Third Bancorp

Current Price: 19.09

Sell Stop: 18.33

First Target: 20.97

Reason For Trade: Crossed 80 monthly this year, close to 2013 highs on daily, long term growth potential


Existing Position: Long XHB 30.70

Name of Instrument: SPDR S&P Homebuilders

Current Price: 30.16

Once Filled Sell Stop: 29.47

First Target: 32.59 Sell ¼-1/3

Reason for Trade: Tested and Held the 50 and 200 DMAs. Has potential to take out the existing 2013 highs


Existing Position: Long TEX
: 35.00

Current Price: 34.02

Name of Instrument: Terex Corp

Sell Stop: 33.14

First Target: 37.09 Sell ¼-1/3

Reason for Trade: Good earnings report and crossing the 80 monthly moving average second time this year, which hasn’t happened since 2008.


Existing Position: Long XRT 82.78

Current Price: 83.66

No Loss Stop: 82.78

First Target: 85.77 for 1/2


From your Hot Air Balloon pilot: “An experienced pilot will bump along the ground to stop the balloon gradually, minimizing the impact.”  Then, all hell can break loose! And so it goes. A cycle ends and ends badly with the scariest of all looking candles in all indices. Huge distribution day in volume and not the kind that illustrates a blow off to the downside. Looks more like a run for the exits and the trust broken. Two rays of hope can come from where the warning began-the Russell 2000s. The fell to the 50 DMA. And, NASDAQ which is still holding the runaway gap from October 18th. Bottom line, if those support areas fail, the market is in for more stormy weather keeping those balloons anchored to the ground. If the support areas hold, then what fun it will be to start looking for buys-especially on those instruments that held up ok.

S&P 500 (SPY) 173.60 next support and a move over recent high would be about the only indicator to trust here Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 106.88 the 50 DMA

Dow (DIA) I have been writing and showing my subscribers the top of the channel here. We saw that it would head there-and now we see that it did and hit the reject button big time!

Nasdaq (QQQ) 80.87 is the high before it gapped up. If that is not filled, very good sign. Otherwise, will make the 50 DMA here compelling

XLF (Financials) 20.39 support tested and marginally held. The 50 DMA is 20.29

SMH (Semiconductors) I would hardly doubt that the longer term reversal trend to the upside is over. But, I will say those who missed that boat-looks like you will get another shot at cheaper levels

XRT (Retail) That “Could be a reversal candle, but has to confirm”-Yup Thursday  

IYT (Transportation) That-“Could be a reversal candle, but has to confirm”-Yup yet again

IBB (Biotechnology) 191.29 last peak low made in early October.  

IYR (Real Estate) Back to an unconfirmed warning phase. However, if holds above the 50 DMA, not a bad place to look for a low risk entry

XHB (Homebuilders) 30.00 now the support area to hold.

GLD These doji candles just prove that this has fallen out of favor to trade

USO (US Oil Fund) Perhaps a sign of deflation

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) “Heading to the 50 DMA”-wrote yesterday-more like heading and breaking

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs went back to an unconfirmed recovery phase

UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed phase change back to Recovery-yo-yo

Bye for Now!