Market Analysis for Trading on 11/1/2013

Mish Schneider | October 31, 2013

New Position:  Long TEX Filled: 35.00

Current Price: 34/93

Name of Instrument: Terex Corp

Sell Stop Once Filled: 32.44

Reason for Trade: Good earnings report and crossing the 80 monthly moving average second time this year, which hasn’t happened since 2008.


Existing Position: Long SLV 21.82

Current Price: 21.13

Stop Loss: 20.93

First Target: Take ½ 23.44


Existing Position: Long XRT 82.78

Current Price: 84.17

Stop Loss: 82.78

First Target: 85.77 for 1/2


Existing Position: Long EEM 42.85

Current Price: 42.55

Stop loss: 42.09

First Target: 44.25 for 1/2


Existing Position: Long: FXI 37.31

Current Price: 37.57

Stop Loss: 36.77

First Target: 38.97 take off 1/3 to 1/2



Existing Position: Long EWG 28.02 Sold 1/3 to ½ 29.33

Current Price: 29.68

Profitable Trailing Stop: 29.04

Next Target: 32.97



If you look at the daily chart prices, no real damage was done. After all, the S&P 500, NASDAQand the Dow all held the fast moving averages. The small caps or Russell 2000s however, broke the fast moving average, had a distribution day in volume and confirmed what now looks like a reversal candle from the highs. That’s the bad news. The good news is that IWM did not gap lower, leaving an island top. So, no execution. Rather, the run-of-the mill haunted house, with what could be a slow death and the real possibility of a stay of execution, most likely granted by the Federal Reserve.

S&P 500 (SPY) I like old highs as support areas to watch-here it is 173.60 unless we clear Thursday’s highs. Subscribers: Pivots negative in all indices

Russell 2000 (IWM) Filled the gap therefore no more runaway. That takes the wind out of the sails, but as mentioned-not a death sentence.

Dow (DIA) 154.85 is the 10 DMA

Nasdaq (QQQ) An open beneath 82.48, will help clarify why we began this week with only a few positions and end the week mainly in cash.

XLF (Financials) I use to write that without Semiconductors at the party, I wouldn’t stay too long. Now, I say the same about the financials.

SMH (Semiconductors) 41.44 is the recent high to keep this going. 40.73 is where you want to see this hold

XRT (Retail) 83.20 is the support to hold here and with an inside day, besides semiconductors, a place to look it if market firms.

IYT (Transportation) Has work to do after toppy candles

IBB (Biotechnology) Once again and 4th time this year, this is about to show if it can hold or if will break the 50 DMA

IYR (Real Estate) Weak, but approaching oversold close to the 50 DMA

XHB (Homebuilders) This tells a story too. Will it hold the underlying major moving averages?

GLD Nasty gap down. If holds 126.60 maybe ok, but if not, back to the negative bias

USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed phase change to Distribution  

OIH (Oil Services) Doji on the fast moving average.

XLE (Energy) Inside day-interesting one to follow the range up or down

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Choppy, indecisive. Hey, sounds like the Fed!

UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed bottom which I hope some of you took advantage of as I have been writing what to look for all week

VNM (Vietnam) Subscribers: Interesting action today. Will keep me interested over R1 tomorrow

URA (Global X Uranium) Subscribers: Over today’s high and R1 line up-also one to watch tomorrow

Bye for Now!