Market Analysis for Trading on 1/15/19

Mish Schneider | January 14, 2019

Longs-

REMOVE-Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA (ATR: .53)

Shorts-

If SMH confirms under the 50-DMA at 91.21 and closes below again, there could be a low risk short (or buy of SOXS) with a risk to over 92.33 Friday’s high.

Existing Positions:

Reports February 6th
***Tesla TSLA (ATR: 18.47)

Long at 344.50 area
***Disappointing reversal under the 50 DMA-you are either out or keeping original stop for now
Sell Stop: 330.71 (always the choice for a faster exit if fails to hold the 50 DMA at 341.40)
First Target: 372

Reports Earning February 13th
***New Age Beverage NBEV (ATR: .45)
Long at 6.17
With 2 ATRs profit hit, go to a no loss stop: 6.17
Target: 7.99-7.44

Reports January 30th after the close
**CREE (ATR: 1.93)
Long on the ORR at 44.60 or on the OR breakout at 45.20
**With earnings so close let’s go to a no loss Stop: 44.60 or 45.20
First Target: 49.47 or 50.17 depending upon risk and fill

Reports before open February 1
Cameco Co. CCJ (ATR: .41)
Long at 11.70
Raise Sell Stop: 11.47
First Target: 13.50 area

Reports before open January 24th
***FSLR (ATR: 2.02)

Long at 44.60 or 45.40
***With earnings so close, let go to a no loss Stop: 44.60 or 45.40
First Target for lower entry: 48.50 area For higher entry: 49.44

Silver SLV (ATR: .20)
Long at 14.10 area
Raise Trailing Stop: 14.37
First target: 15.24 for ½

If you have questions, please ask me on @marketminute my twitter account

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Will Bulls Wind up an Endangered Species?

Recently, we spent a long time observing Orangutans at the zoo.

Interestingly, humans and Orangutans share nearly 97% of the same DNA. That makes them one of our closest relatives.

Unlike humans, Orangutans’ arms stretch out longer than their bodies.

This reminds me of the bulls in the current market.

It seems to me, that the bull’s arms have stretched out longer than the body of the market.

Despite that at any given moment the market could have a significant sell-off, the bulls remain steadfast.

Bulls are hanging from the trees, swinging from branch to branch.

Yet, I wonder how long it will be before even the loud howls and bellows of the bulls are met with a trip to the endangered species list?

Over the weekend, we covered the Regional Banks ETF KRE, or what I call the Prodigal Son of the Modern Family.

As of last Friday, KRE had rallied nearly to the tick, to the 200-WMA at 50.25.

Today, KRE cleared the 200-WMA and the 50.25 level.

However, the lack of follow-through in the indices and all of the other Modern Family members except Transportation IYT, is noteworthy.

The Russell 2000 IWM, still has to clear 145 and the 50-DMA to improve in phase from Bearish to Recuperation.

Semiconductors SMH, which did clear the 50-DMA on Friday, needed to confirm that move today. It did not.

Rather, SMH broke back down below the 50-DMA and went back into an unconfirmed Bearish phase.

The S&P 500 opened lower, and never recaptured its floor trader midpoints.

Remember, weekly charts are best when the price closes the week above/below the key levels noted. There’s a whole lot of time before Friday. If KRE cannot close the week over 50.25, you will be duly warned.

Orangutans’ future is bleak because of illegal logging, poaching, fires, and severe drought.

Bulls’ future could also be bleak because of the government shutdown, debt, rising interest rates, weakening dollar, lower oil prices and severe fourth quarter earnings losses.

S&P 500 (SPY) 259 is pivotal resistance with best underlying support at 255. Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 140 best underlying support and unless this can clear 145, we could see 140 soon.

Dow (DIA) 235 pivotal support-244.20 is the negatively sloped 50-DMA

Nasdaq (QQQ) The 50 DMA at 162.21. Support at 156

KRE (Regional Banks) It’s all about the weekly close-over 50.25 great. Below, I will consider that a failure into resistance

SMH (Semiconductors) Now an unconfirmed Bearish phase. Has to confirm with a second close under 91.23

IYT (Transportation) This still has a long way to go to see the 50 DMA at 179.35. So for now, a close under 170 would not be a good sign

IBB (Biotechnology) 110 next resistance with 106 closest support

XRT (Retail) 43.75 the pivotal number still. Above good, below we are looking at 42.25 support. Above we can see the 200-WMA looking at 44.80

GLD (Gold Trust) 124-125 target. 120 major support

GDX (Gold Miners) best support now 20.70 but not too happy we could not get that weekly close over 21.13

SLV (Silver) Now should hold 14.40.

URA (Uranium) Long CCJ so watch this to hold around 12.00

USO (US Oil Fund) There’s a reason I’ve given you no trades here-too choppy. Further declines would not be good for the market either

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration)

TAN (Solar Energy) 20.50 pivotal resistance and 20.00 support

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 121.40 now resistance with 120 some support

UUP (Dollar Bull) UUP closed over 25.34-that’s why commodities are still languishing.

FXI (China) 40.60 the 200-WMA could not clear

EEM (Emerging Markets) 41 resistance

ILF (Latin America) 33.45 is the 80-month moving average-now support

MJ (Alternative Harvest ETF) CGC and NBEV really helped this today

LIT (Lithium) The 200-WMA at 27.72

CORN (CORN) 16.30 pivotal-if gets back above better-and over 16.53 on a close a long trigger

CANE (Sugar) 7.37 support to hold. But futures over 13-13.07 is safest

Soybeans (SOYB) 16.25 must hold

DBA (Agriculture) If in at 17.02 stop under 17.00-if not, waiting for a move over 17.50

USCI (US Commodity Index) Moved back over 38 and now must hold 37.70.