Market Analysis for Trading on 08/17/2020

Geoff Bysshe | August 16, 2020

Watching

F: watching for consolidation

DIS: waiting for pullback to 200 DMA

SBUX: looking for a breakout of consolidation at the 200 DMA

UNG: waiting for a pullback

GBTC (Bitcoin): Could be fun if it clears 14.45, and may consider it sooner.

OIH: looking for a good risk OR breakout close and over 140

See changes and new notes below indicated by ***

Existing Positions

DBA at 14.30. (ATR is .13).
For the stop loss we will scale out.
Sell half at 13.87 and other half at 13.63.
Target 1 (move to no loss): 14.67.
Target 2 (sell half): 15.47

TECK ATR: .49
Long at 11.35
Sell Stop: 10.17
First target: 13.64-13.74

FCEL ATR .21 September 11 reports
Long at 2.56
Sell Stop: 2.24
Target: 3.74-3.84 range

New and old-SOYB ATR .12 (always remember end of day use of stops)
Long either ½ if new add or whole if new position at 14.27
Stay with it until it closes below 13.84
Target 1: 14.64

New and old-CANE ATR .11 (always remember end of day use of stops)
Long on add or new 6.05 (broke from base)
Sell Stop: 5.49 (might move up-this was for best position sizing)
Target 1: 7.10-7.15

FVAC ATR 1.10-this is a set and forget so don’t watch the ticks
Long at 12.15
Sell Stop 9.69.
Target: 17.05-17.15

Target 1 HIT!! 21.24-21.44!
Target 2 HIT! 23.74-23.84
SPCE ATR 1.27
Long at 16.50
Trailing stop: 17.74
First target: 21.24-21.44-HIT!
Target 2: 23.74-23.84 for another ¼ HIT!

VNM ATR .39
Long at 13.86
Trailing stop: 13.99
First Target: 15.44

FSLR ATR 2.18
Long at 50.70 (1/2)
Trailing stop: 60.74
First Target: HIT! 59.24-58.74
Second Target: HIT!! 69.00 or 67.00

Older if still in CANE ATR .16
Long average price 5.69
Target: To take off ½ 6.23

Hit Target and sold ½ 14.43 on a MIT order at 14.44

SOYB ATR .18
Long: 13.74
End of day stop only-13.84
HIT!! Target 1: 14.44 area to take off ½
Target 2: 15.00-15.03

Target 1 HIT! 155.50
Core
GLD ATR 4.14
Long ½ position at 149.66
Trailing Stop: 174.74
First Target: 153.24 area HIT!
***Second Target: 198.50-199.00

Silver SLV ATR .40
Long ¼-1/2 position from core at 11.88 and ½ at 13.04-and now 14.45
Trailing Stop: 19.44
First Target: 13.64-74 HIT!
HIT! Second Target 15.44-15.54
Sold more at 17.44 target

If you have questions, please contact Geoff via info@marketgauge.com or live chat at the bottom of every page on our website.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Did you know this about XRT and TLT?

As the S&P 500 struggles to rise a fraction of a percentage point to be able to achieve the status of reclaiming its February all-time high level…

Imagine you could go back to February 19th 2020.

The SPY has just closed at a new all-time high, and news of the COVID-19 virus causing havoc in China is in the headlines, but this time…

You know that a pandemic will soon cripple the U.S. economy and crash the stock market from its peak to down over 30% faster than any other time in history.

You also know the market will recover quicker than anyone expects led by technology companies that will find a silver lining in the chaos and provide the same for their shareholders.

Knowing that sliver of the future, you’re asked…

Which ETF will make you the best return from then (February 19th) to now, the time when the SPY returns to its February levels?

You must choose between XRT or QQQ.

First, I have to give a big “thank you” to Stock Charts, which made it so easy for me to provide you with these charts.

Note, I added the tickers to the chart’s bars to make it quicker to read.

As you can see from the charts below, Grandma Retail (XRT) has some real fight in her!

I’d call it a tie.

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Here’s a different view of the same group of symbols over the same time frame so you can see their journey.

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Now let’s do the same exercise, but starting from the March 23rd low in the SPY…

The low was created by the Fed’s announcement that it will do whatever it takes to stabilize the bond markets, including buying corporate bonds at every grade (all way down to Junk!).

From the chart above, you already know XRT has kept up with the QQQ, and crushed the SPY since February.

And you know that since February the banks (KRE) have been the worst performer.

That said…

Which ETF will do better from the lows, bonds (TLT) or the banks (KRE)?

The answer is below…

I’ll leave the analysis and the “why?” up to you, so as not to cloud this simple message, which is also the theme of this week’s Market Outlook…

If you want to follow the market, sometimes you need to remember not to let what logic get in the way of reality.

As traders, we have several ways of saying this. For example…

Trade what you see, not what you think.

Here’s a look at how the same group of symbols from above have moved since the SPY low. Note the color of the lines and bars are not the same in these charts as the ones above.

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Here’s the same data with an easier way to see the end result.

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If you’d like to make your own charts like these, here’s a link to this list of symbols in the StockCharts’ default view and time frame (200 days). You can change the time frame by clicking on the slider’s number of days at the bottom right and the chart type with the icons at the bottom left.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?KRE,IWM,IYT,SPY,TLT,XRT,IBB,SMH,QQQ,GLD&n=95&O=111010

Let me know what you think of all this in comments section below.

Best wishes for your trading,

Geoff Bysshe
President
MarketGauge.com

(Geoff is filling for Mish until August 31st)


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S&P 500 (SPY) Double Doji pattern within Wednesday’s range. Be cautious under 332. Watch 330 as important support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Double inside day pattern broke the pattern low and recovered. Key level to break above is 158, the160 is  resistance area and 153 key support.

Dow (DIA) Third consolidation day. 270 now pivotal support

Nasdaq (QQQ) Consolidation day sitting on the 10 DMA. 275 is the all-time high level to break.  260 is key support level and a trendline.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Weak day new closing low, and closed at the low of the day. 162 next big support.

KRE (Regional Banks) Bullish bounce off the 10 DMA.  42 is big resistance.  39.20 area is support

SMH (Semiconductors) Second consolidation day .165-168 pivotal support

IYT (Transportation) Interesting looking flag. 200 resistance. 179-180 now key support

IBB (Biotechnology) Bearish flag in a weak place, under the 50 DMA. Real Motion indicator is negative.

XRT (Retail) 3 days of consolidation.  Still sitting at 51-52 area which is a big resistance level

Volatility Index (VXX) consolidating.

Junk Bonds (JNK) Continued lower. 50 and 200 DMAs at 104 and 103.66 respectively. Keep an eye on it, and more importantly how stocks react to any further weakness.

LQD (iShs iBoxx High yield Bonds) Continued lower, closing in a Warning Phase. Next level of support 134.80.

GLD (Gold Trust) Inside day. Key level to clear is 185. Support 181.40 and 179.

SLV (Silver) Resistance at 25.80 and support at 24.

USO (US Oil Fund) Bounced off 10-DMA at 30.

OIH (Oil Svc) Bounced off 10 DMA at 136.65. Looks good over 140.

VNM (Vietnam) Tightest 8-day consolidation since Jan. 2020. Breakout over 14.80.

CORN (CORN) Consolidation at its 50 DMA.

DBA (Agriculture) Support at 10 DMA at 14.12.

GBTC (Bitcoin) Edged over 10 DMA. Key range to watch 12.60 to 14.45