Weekly Market Outlook

Risk On takes a Trip South

February 9, 2019


This week’s market action was relatively muted and mostly boring. We did get some entertaining headlines like Pelosi’s famous clap down and Bezos’ war with the National Enquirer that tanked both his marriage and his stock. U.S. Equity markets shrugged off sloppy, choppy sideways action with what appeared to be a mini buying panic in the last few minutes of the trading week. The key

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Sector Summary

These 11 basic sector ETFs will keep you in the primary market trends if you follow the leaders on a 6-month basis. Use the Phases and 3-month % Change for more active trading.

Chart Last Updated: February 15 2019

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To see key chart levels click here.

Category: Risk On/Off

Description:

This table tracks key performance and indicator data for the major U.S. sector ETFs. In addition to seeing the daily price change, highs, lows, and volume, we also display the market phase and longer-term price performance. This can be used to identify key performance stats for any individual instrument or to access how they are performing overall as a group.

What to look for:

  • Are the majority in the same phase? Are there any phase changes? (Indicated by an "!" and highlighted color)
  • How many have positive 6 mo change (see power of summing up this data below)
    • Pullbacks that stay over the 40 week (200 day) MA with a high number of sectors with 6 mo. positive returns can be seen as more shallow dips and a potential buying opportunity.

How To Use The 6-Month Percent Change:

In the basic tabular format the 6-month momentum is a good gauge of whether you should have a bullish or bearish bias as stocks with positive momentum often tend to continue in the direction of their primary trend.

The aggregation of the number of sectors in this table with positive 6-month percentage changes has also demonstrated to be a powerful market timing indicator.

The basic interpretation of this chart is:

Bullish if the SPY is over the 200-day or 40-week average (blue) AND there are 3 or more sector ETFs with a positive 6-mo. Change or...

Bearish if the SPY is under the 200-day or 40-week average (blue) AND there are less than 3 sector ETFs with a positive 6-mo. change.