Will Rising Gas Prices Take Away Our Treats?

May 14, 2018

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Meet Bella and Raul.

Yes, they are spoiled rotten.

Yet, as I reached for my credit card at the gas station yesterday, to pay nearly 40% more than I did just a few months ago to fill my tank, they looked nervous.

Statistically, people rarely stint on their pets, even during recessionary times.

However, people will cut corners elsewhere when commuting gets expensive.

This week, lots of brick and mortar retailers report earnings.

The companies on tap are JC Penney (JCP), Home Depot (HD), Wal-Mart (WMT), Macy’s (M) and Nordstrom’s (JWN).

Already a lagging sector of the economy, retail can play catch-up based on strong earnings.

Or, it can also send a sobering reminder to investors.

As nearly 70% of the gross domestic product, retail numbers and consumer sentiment, strong this past quarter, could start to abate.

Over the weekend, the idea of putting out a fire with gasoline, typifies this most recent rally.

Today, oil gained while our Granddaddy Russell 2000 fell.

Transportation started the red brigade.

Although the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow closed higher, will Transportation and the Russell’s make the others beg for elusive treats?

IWM (Russell 2000) began by taking out the former all-timehigh of 160.63 by 6 cents.

I would not exactly today’s action a reversal. Nonetheless, I will say that the lack of follow-through of fresh buyers serves as a head’s up.

The dollar, under early pressure, firmed later on along with rates.

That, and the continuing uptrend in oil prices impacted the transportation sector.

The Transportation IYT, ran right up to significant resistance at near 195.

Similarly to IWM, I would not call that a topping candle.

One reason, today’s dogs should not panic is that the action in Semiconductors (SMH) and Granny Retail (XRT) was positive.

With SMH picking up the pace, as this is a highly speculated area of the Modern Family, our wonder woman could just be the reason that IYT and IWM will wag their tail again tomorrow.

And, Granny Retail (XRT) cleared 46.00, ahead of earnings by big retail. That helps too.

Yet, I would continue to watch our dynamic duo (IWM and IYT).

Like Bella and Raul, they’ve been a bit spoiled lately, and could easily lose the high-priced treats.

S&P 500 (SPY) The tinderbox of issues in the geopolitical world could ignite at any time, so 267-268 is max risk here.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Today’s new all-time high is 160.69. 158 pivotal support which if fails, would give bears a low risk opportunity to short against the highs. Should it clear and hold over ATH’s, a $10 move up is not out of the question

Dow (DIA) Who can forget Terror at 25,000 in the Dow? Not me-so that’s the resistance (250) with now 245 support to hold

Nasdaq (QQQ) Didn’t quite fill the gap to 170.93 left on 3/17. Today high 170.82-so that’s not the healthiest sign. 168 needs to hold

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