January 8, 2019
By Mish Schneider
A common misconception is that bears hibernate during the winter months.
Many bears go into a deep sleep (torpor) yet can wake up if they hear a loud noise or are moved or touched.
Since December 26th, the day the swing lows were made, there has been about a 10% gain.
It would be foolish not to think about what might wake up the bears.
With rates firming a bit, the dollar declining and oil prices consolidating, the bears have not moved.
The good news is, the bears are still asleep.
However, the question on my mind is, with the phases Bearish in all four indices and most economic sectors, what will reawaken the bears?
Assuming the phases remain bearish, here are the levels we are watching:
If IWM cannot hold 140, that might awaken the bears.
If the Dow Jones through DIA fails 235, that might awaken the bears.
If Semiconductors SMH cannot retake 88.40 and breaks below 85.50, that might awaken the bears.
If Transportation IYT fails 168 and then 164, that should awaken the bears.
If Retail XRT, cannot clear the 200-WMA is at 44.84 and fails 42.50, that might awaken the bears.
If Regional Banks KRE fail 48.50, that might awaken the bears.
If interest rates through TLTs break below 121.35, that might awaken the bears.
If the U.S. dollar breaks below 95.65, that might awaken the bears.
It really is that simple. Watch the price.
Bears hibernate not because of the cold, but because there is a lack of food during the winter months.
If those levels fail, the Bears will sniff a feast!
S&P 500 (SPY) 251.62 pivotal support. 258.62 is resistance.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 138.70 is the closest support and 140 is resistance. If this can clear, next level is 145.
Dow (DIA) 235 pivotal support-if cannot hold, then maybe the rally has peaked.
Nasdaq (QQQ) 155 now pivotal support. 160 is the resistance
KRE (Regional Banks) 46.20 support. Over 50.20 it gets interesting
SMH (Semiconductors Must hold 85.50. Over 88.40 can see move back to 91-92.00
IYT (Transportation) 164 now the underlying and important support. Rallied to a target of 170-171.50
IBB (Biotechnology) 103 is the 50 DMA resistance it ran to on Friday. Now pivotal support
XRT (Retail) 44.84 the 200-week MA resistance. 40 best underlying support
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