January 14, 2014
By Mish Schneider
Quote From: Quigley Down Under
The first day of 2014 began with negative price action. Now, as we approach the 2 week mark, the writing appears to be on the wall.
With the spectacular moves in certain sectors and with only a few longs, I admit, I felt like we had missed the party boat.
However, as a student of calendar ranges, I figured that if another party boat began to load at the dock, we’d be sure to board and if not, we’d be happy safely on terra firma.
I’m not suggesting we all head home just yet. The phase in the overall indices remain bullish. Nonetheless, everyone needs a toolbox more diverse than buy the dip and hold. Begin with a solid understanding of the macro picture. From there, study the sectors/groups. After that, have a stop loss, target and timeframe in mind.
Lastly, notice how quiet the amateurs on twitter become.
S&P 500 (SPY) 181.60 area has been support with the 50 DMA next stop thereafter. I’d be surprised to see a rally from here, but not surprised to see digestion with 183 now resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) 112 the 50 DMA with resistance now at 114.10 area should this come in weaker
Dow (DIA) Broke the runaway gap. Now, 163.50 resistance with support underneath at the 50 DMA 160.30
Nasdaq (QQQ) 85.11 the 50 DMA
XLF (Financials) Pretty significant fall from the highs. Bank stocks report this week
SMH (Semiconductors) One big reason I did not start out enthusiastic was because my semis left a nasty reversal candle from the multi-year highs
IYT (Transportation) Possible reversal candle from highs but still a good place to look for any strength
IBB (Biotechnology) Could have been it for now-but lots of underlying support
XRT (Retail) Nasty ahead of retail sales.
IYR (Real Estate) Confirmed recovery phase showing the basing action in play from last week if holds above 63.60
GLD Unconfirmed phase change to recovery
OIH (Oil Services) 200 DMA in its midst
XLE (Energy) Decisive action and not in a good way
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) the 200 DMA real close here too
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) A sign of weakness since the FED will taper and yet, rates continue to drop
UUP (Dollar Bull) 21.60 a spot to watch
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