Under the Control of a Strange Force Bending Us in Absurd Ways

February 13, 2015

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Astronomers in Australia picked up an “alien” radio signal from space for the first time as it occurred back on May 15, 2014. Emerging from an unknown source, these bursts are bright flashes of radio waves that emit as much energy in a few milliseconds as the sun does in 24 hours. The cause of these mysterious signals remains unknown, with possible theories ranging from black holes to alien communication “We're confident that they're coming from natural sources, that is to say it's probably not aliens, but we haven't solved the case completely.” Emily Petroff a PhD candidate from Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne, Australia.

As far-fetched as one would think this analogy is, the volatility index (VXX) I featured all last week, has been like a mysterious alien radio signal that I cannot ignore while one could probably surmise, is not coming from aliens.

While the market impressively closed the week substantially over the January 6 month Calendar Range high and the S&P 500 closed on new all-time highs, indicating a bullish bias at least until the end of June, I ended last week thinking that the market will continue to see small rallies met with selling followed by periods of consolidation, mainly because of what VXX appears to be relaying. However, unless we fail these calendar range highs, assume sell-offs are good buy opportunities.

VXX dropped right down into the converging moving averages after its earlier golden cross to a bullish phase. Then last Friday, it broke 31.20 briefly climbed over 2 of the 3 major moving averages then proceeded to close, with super light volume, marginally beneath all 3 of those moving averages.

Like a burst of bright flashes that emit as much energy in milliseconds as the sun does in 24 hours, I will continue to keep the volatility index in focus, even if it means wearing sunglasses so I can safely look up at space scanning for alien forces that might knock the wind out of the market’s strength.

Man, could I have too much fun with the topic of alien abductions, market probes and the like (think the book Communion: A True Story by Whitley Strieber). But, I will stop here and instead wish you all a wonderful 3-day weekend.

S&P 500 (SPY) 220?

Russell 2000 (IWM) New all-time high and really, could mean this is the year of the Russell

Dow (DIA) 180.71 high December 26th still calling its name. Otherwise, 179. 23 is the major support area

Nasdaq (QQQ) Highest it’s been since 2000. Party like its 1999 this weekend.

XLF (Financials) 24.90 the January Calendar Range high, 24.37 the support-needs to participate

KRE (Regional Banks) 41.06 the January Calendar Range high

SMH (Semiconductors) 56.64 resistance from December

IYT (Transportation) 205.16 January high

IBB (Biotechnology) 322.46 the January 6-month high which cleared already but now becomes pivotal

XRT (Retail) New highs and one I gave over 96.00 now trading over 98.00

IYR (Real Estate) Confused by strong market and firming rates

ITB (US Home Construction) Another one I gave a heads up on over 26.00, now on new multi-year highs

GLD (Gold Trust) Under 116.90 trouble ahead.

USO (US Oil Fund) 19.93 is the 50 DMA with 20.35 the 6 month January calendar range high

XLE (Energy) This has the best performance as written last week-now over Friday’s high should continue

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Not a bad second to XLE if clears 53.90

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) No sunscreen or sunglasses necessary

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Unconfirmed bullish phase, first time since September 2014 if confirms

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.70 support

EEM (Emerging Markets) Basing out-it’s safe, you can come out now!

EWG (Germany) Resting above the 50 DMA waiting for more confidence in the global situation especially with the Greek bailout deadline

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Still long term bullish here

RSX (Russia) Wow

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