September 20, 2018
By Mish Schneider
Pigs represent prosperity, wealth and abundance.
Pigs are powerful symbols of bringing all these good things.
Pigs also tend to overindulge.
Furthermore, they are not always aware of the dangers that surround them.
Unaware of any dangers around it, the market is bringing prosperity, wealth and abundance.
Some aspects of the market could be seen as overindulging.
The S&P 500 and the Dow made new all-time highs.
Considering the falling dollar and firming interest rates, will our pig continue to go to market or will it stay home?
At this point, even with the rising rates and falling dollar, that SPY and DIA making new highs is a good thing.
Furthermore, Semi’s (SMH) as we had hoped, came back to close in an unconfirmed bullish phase.
Plus, Transportation (IYT) although not terribly impressive, at least is holding support. It must move up though, to keep the pig at market.
Looking at Retail, the rising slope on the 50 DMA is strong even if the price is not moving along with the indices.
XRT has to clear 51.80 and close there to get back in the race.
Biotechnology (IBB) came back to life with fresh buying. That makes sense as the specs are inching back into the market.
And, Regional Banks (KRE), with the firmer rates also cleared back over the 50 DMA to an unconfirmed bullish phase.
So, we begin the last day of the week with lots of potential-and also with some concerns if the bullish phases in the key sectors fail to confirm.
Finally, we should be a bit worried about the dollar. Should it stay in a warning phase and work its way lower, that will help commodities.
Although we are premature in assuming any inflation factors becoming uncontrollable, it is a trend to keep track of.
That of course, will put pressure on the Fed to raise the rates higher and possibly faster.
And that will surely send our piggy home.
For now, eat your roast beef and be mindful of the pigs who get none.
S&P 500 (SPY) The new high is impressive. 291.74 the old high now the support to hold
Russell 2000 (IWM) 170 now pivotal support with 169 the 50 DMA and we still want to see this clear 172. The 173.
Dow (DIA) new all-time highs. 265.93 the old high from January now support.
Nasdaq (QQQ) The 2 Inside days reconciled to the upside. That means that the area around 183.50 should continue to hold now if good
KRE (Regional Banks) Closed over the 200 DMA at 62.58 for an unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Needs a second day to confirm.
SMH (Semiconductors) 106.38 the pivotal area to hold to confirm the phase change to bullish.
IYT (Transportation) 206.70-207.22 pivotal area. If fails to hold, 203 next big support. Otherwise, the ATH is at 209.43
IBB (Biotechnology) 117.83 the 50 DMA now the pivotal 50 DMA support to hold to confirm the phase change to bullish.
XRT (Retail) 51.80 a good spot for this to recapture. The 50 DMA below is at 50.90. Momentum positive