June 30, 2015
By Mish Schneider
Let’s just say I would not recommend a lunch date with Hannibal Lecter just yet, considering the lambs may have abated their screaming, but they have not been let loose in the pasture.
Not surprising to see some relief during Tuesday’s session considering the 350 point drop on Monday. The operative word here is “some” as the indices tried hard but could not do much more than that-try.
Looking at the Family-my rudder all year, the Russell 2000 closed just around the 50 Daily Moving Average to at least give us a reason to show up one more day before we US traders say, “Heck, let’s start the July 4th weekend early!”
Retail looks more disappointing, confirming a warning phase unable to hold above its 50 DMA. Regional Banks held 44.00, and with rates firming a bit again, could return to rallying, especially if it clears 44.75. Otherwise, under 44.00 see a move down to its 50 DMA.
Semiconductors traded inside the trading range of Monday and returned back over the 200 DMA-promise there. Biotechnology even better, had an inside day over the 50 DMA.
Leaving our family underdog for last, Transportation also had an inside day however, with virtually no signs of a reversal pattern or huge volume therefore, unless that happens during Wednesday’s session, it could be looking at 143.50 next, a significant area of support on the monthly chart.
Greece (GREK) on the other hand, does have a probable reversal pattern in play if confirms. Huge volume, and a close in the top part of the intraday range. Although the lambs are not too happy about this, the Shepherd surely knows that if you want the best lamb meat, head to your local Greek Restaurant for a delicious Gyro.
On another note, I have been talking about the basing action in Commodities, especially the soft ones, for some time now. Tuesday the agricultural index soared, with Corn rising over 6%. Commodities direction reflects supply/demand. And regardless of anything else going on in the world or with FED policy, like our sheep, we all gotta eat!
S&P 500 (SPY) Holding the 200 DMA which of course it has to continue to do and rally from or more downside in store Subscribers: Negative pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day and did manage to get back to an Unconfirmed Bullish Phase
Dow (DIA) With 2 days of huge volume, I am more thinking blow off in the works and will look for confirmation of that over the 200 DMA
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day with a move over 108 good if happens
XLF (Financials) 24.15 support with an inside day
KRE (Regional Banks) 44.00 area support then 42.85 and back over 45 a much better scenario
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day above the 200 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day on the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Wednesday is key for this to hold or could see lower prices quickly
IYR (Real Estate) Touched major monthly chart support
XHB (US HomeBuilders) Inside day above the 50 DMA
GLD (Gold Trust) No noteworthy action
USO (US Oil Fund) Noisy until it clears 21.50 or fails 19.00
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Like over 13.67
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Inside day-over 40.00 gets interesting
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 119 has been recent resistance that has to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) If clears the 50 DMA resistance could see more upside
EEM (Emerging Markets) Interesting pattern in some emerging markets in spite of a stronger US dollar
CORN (Corn) Last time this was over the 200 DMA was April 2014-cleared there Tuesday
BAL (Cotton) Great basing action
SGG (Sugar) Trying to base
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