September 22, 2013
By Mish Schneider
My last week’s comments were filled with warnings-the double the average volume as S&P 500 made new highs last Wednesday-possible blow off rally; the shooting star possibility in NASDAQ last Thursday: that neither the Retail nor Financial sectors (ETFs) made new 2013 highs after the FED announcement; that the long bonds could not change to a more positive phase, even after flirting with it. But, my comments were also filled with hope-a bullish phase in all Indices, Semiconductors and Transportation sectors strong (both outperformed on Friday); the market still managed to close higher on the week. Regardless, there were several references to the logic of taking profits, not overloading on new positions and keeping trailing stops. What now? With uncertainty-talks of potentially halting the government, recirculating whether or not to raise the debt ceiling and all the other ways these influences make the market giveth then taketh away-watch price action mainly-and the phases-what happens at the 50 DMA should the indices correct that far. Also, continue to watch the long bonds. If all else fails, the $5 Million Rocky Mountain treasure is still waiting to be found! My homey, Forrest Fenn-trickster or real?
S&P 500 (SPY) Looks like a brick wall high. The fast moving average or around 170.04 could be support.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Much better looking which brings me back to hope-watch this for a failure of 105.45 or a move back over 107.00
Dow (DIA) Similar to SPY only a bit worse since it only marginally cleared the old 2013 high to make a new one, failed with a potential brick wall and has the closest trip if continues south, to the 50 DMA.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Shooting star is when an instrument makes a new high and closes with a doji candle-then, confirms with a down day thereafter. But, not totally ready to throw in the towel-a lot will depend on early Monday’s action.
XLF (Financials) After failing to take out the old 2013 high, approaching some critical support at 20.30 level.
SMH (Semiconductors) Yes potential brick wall high-but long term, still looks good
XRT (Retail) After failing to take out the old 2013 high, look first at 81.55 then 81.00 as key levels of support
IBB (Biotechnology) Then there’s this-an inside day
IYR (Real Estate) Back to the 50 DMA. Subscribers: If holds these levels, might look to reenter
XHB (Homebuilders) Another topping looking formation
GLDI’m sure glad we’ve stayed away from here for now
USO (US Oil Fund)Unconfirmed warning phase but held the weekly loiw make on 9/17 which makes that low important
OIH (Oil Services)Yet another topping looking formation near term
XLE (Energy) 84.00 muy importante
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) This could easily recover from here-look at 65.00 first
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Got right to the 50 DMA but couldn’t clear. Watch that carefully.
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