The Historian Is A Prophet Looking Backward

June 24, 2014

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Karl Wilhelm Friedrich Schlegel

Summer light versus Winter shade the title of Monday’s daily. Tuesday night I quoted Led Zeppelin with Many Times I Loved, Many Times Been Bitten.

Now, is it me, or are those titles downright prophetic? Or maybe it was China, and the anomaly I wrote about that had me spooked. All I know is that nobody likes to see new highs as NASDAQ made or a new 60-day high as the Russells made, followed by a sharp about face WITH volume.

So one thing you should know if you are a consistent reader, EVERYTHING needs confirmation with a second day. Tuesday action no exception. Both IWM and QQQs closed pretty much right on the fast moving averages. Recoverable if they can hold here and turn back up.

The S&P 500 and the Dow closed beneath the fast moving averages. Even Semiconductors had the worst one day decline since April 4th after making new highs. That move drove prices lower for a month before a good volume up day occurred on May 5th.

Now that we are looking at SMH, it had a runaway gap on Friday the 13th-the full moon day incidentally. That low was 48.54. Therefore, a move below 48.38 will not only fill that gap, but seal the fate perhaps of the party that has been wilder than the ones thrown at the Playboy Mansion-never been-just conjecturing.

Let’s look for Wednesday confirmation or no confirmation. The Indices, Semiconductors should be enough to look at. Energy, the other amazing sector, also reversed actually on Monday.

One more thought though-China-the gap down on Monday was disturbing. The second gap down on Tuesday in the midst of NASDAQ making new highs was even more baffling. Baidu roaring further contrasted FXI. And what about Dubai? That country ETF is down over 25%!

S&P 500 (SPY) Not crazy blow off volume, so perhaps will hold and turn back over 195

Russell 2000 (IWM) Never came close to new highs so this really has to show some muscle now

Dow (DIA) 168.50 pivotal 167 n0065t support

Nasdaq (QQQ) 92.80 drove this up, then failed end of day. Good pivotal area still with more weakness and see this drop to 91.40

XLF (Financials) 22.93 high to clear or with further weakness, see more correction in store

IBB (Biotechnology) Vertex gave this a big lift, but it still closed near the intraday lows. Look here too

XRT (Retail) Actually, since this never cleared the 2014 highs, could just need to do more work between 84.00 and 87.00

ITB (US Home Construction) Closed over 24.36 making this a place to go for strength

GLD Maybe a new 60 day high and done-but has to confirm that

OIH (Oil Services) Ugly looking but not dead yet

XLE (Energy) Ugly looking and might be dead

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 5 days to rally and one to drop

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 42.00 should hold if this is good

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT And, we are right back over the 50 DMA

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