The Confident Popped Collar

July 15, 2015

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Wednesday is the official start of the July 6-month calendar range and a chance for us to gauge how our Modern Family might fare given the new parameters within the parameters of the giant trading range thus far in 2015.

Beginning with Big Brother Biotechnology, after the huge run to new all-time highs, no surprise that it backed off from the early morning intraday levels with profit taking. At this point, no scary reversal patterns, but of course, we always keep an eye out for that possibility.

Granddad Russell 2000 is perhaps the most interesting. Although above the 50 DMA, it couldn’t clear 126.50 the new 6-month range high. However, until it breaks under 121.28, selloffs are expected.

Should that level break in IWM, then for the first time this year, we will look to go longer term short.

Presently, we’re focused on Granny Retail who had a peaceful correction from Monday’s high holding the 100 level and Tuesday’s low. For now, this has my vote as the best chance to play catchup to the Biotech and Financial Sectors.

Granny’s 6-month Calendar range high is 101.24. That is the point to clear. Concerning our Prodigal Son, Regional Banks, he’s having trouble getting through 45.00, but did close green and is in good shape.

Regarding our weaker sibs-Transportation and Semiconductors, Trannies are still working the reversal bottom. Semis are the frailest, especially if they cannot close this week out over 52.62.

Janet Yellen is not exactly Janis Joplin (especially since she has poo-pooed the strength of Biotechnology (our Big Bro and its Holding Company), some time ago.

Yet, she does seem to be one very cool customer with her turned up collar, optimism about the US Economy and her remarks that she remains on track to raise rates if the economy evolves as she expects.

Bottom line is that Yellen’s declaration proves that it’s not if the Fed will raise rates but when they will.

With reference to the DJIA and the gremlin driven terror at 18,000, as it marginally holds that level, looks like a case of nerves rather than a full blown panic attack.

S&P 500 (SPY) Confirmed bullish phase.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 124.75 key support to hold and rally, donw to 124.25. Then, over 126.50 should have more

Dow (DIA) Confirmed bullish phase.

Nasdaq (QQQ) The highs are within reach

XLF (Financials) 2015 high 25.31-pretty close

KRE (Regional Banks) 45.00 next resistance to clear with support at 43.98

SMH (Semiconductors) Intel saved this after a weak performance on Wednesday. A gap over the 200 DMA will be great for everyone else

IYR (Real Estate) 74.50 the 50 DMA resistance overhead

XHB (US HomeBuilders) 36.70 area support to hold

GLD (Gold Trust) Not only is 110 an important to hold but could be we saw a reversal pattern on the new 2015 low with the close back above 110

USO (US Oil Fund) 18.00 is the number to clear otherwise aside

UNG (US NatGas Fund) Confirmed a recovery phase so will see what this has

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Backed from the resistance-needs to establish a better base

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Holding 2015 lows

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.45 next point to clear

EEM (Emerging Markets) 39.00 pivotal

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