August 11, 2011
By Mish Schneider
SPY hard to know if the run today was the start of a bottoming formation or a good rally to last week's resistance. Incredible how it nearly wiped out yesterday's loss. A true testimony to the ongoing volatility. Fact-good follow through over yesterday's high after inside day. Fact-Volume ok but not the accumulation that would be more encouraging. Fact-Back over the 200 weekly moving average. Fact-Did not close over this week's high. Fact-Nearly a Death Cross on the major moving averages which would gives us an official Bearish Phase. If SPY closes out the week above 120.08, last week's close, then the signs for more upside are better. Otherwise, if SPY breaks down from here, the Facts support more downside.
DIA Looks nearly identical to SPY except the major moving averages are still a bit away from the threatening death cross.
QQQ Will make the same case here-although nowhere near the 200 weekly. A close above 53.83 would be encouraging.
IWM**Also close to a death cross. The weekly close to watch here is 71.33
GLD Got out of balance of long under S1, but now, since it broke S2 as well, needs to clear R1 172.54 to get going again.
SLV Since never confirmed an opening range breakdown, the miniswing position from yesterday still intact. A break of 38.30 should keep it going up. A move under today's low would bring it back to test 36.00.
IBB Went into depth about all of the major groups SMH IYT IYR XLY and EWT in today's video. All busted out of their inside day and holding the 200 weekly moving average. Since all have positive pivots, watch to see if their FTPs hold. Only EWT has a death cross-the rest are in Distribution phases. These merit careful watching since as of now, SMH EWT IYR are all above last week's close. IBB IYR XLY are not.
XLF provided it holds 12.38 and closes above 13.43 on a weekly basis, could be bottoming out.
FCG Got over 18.41 as wrote last night and got back above the 200 weekly moving average. If holds 19, could see 20.20 area next.
OIH** today was the day to buy OIH on the opening range breakout. Closed above the last 2 days highs, but not above the 200 weekly moving average 132.19. A close above the 200 weekly is encouraging.
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