April 3, 2012
By Mish Schneider
Finally, the FED did exactly what seemed fairly obvious which in turn scared off some longs in commodities, firming the TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries), which if you are a consistent reader of this daily, know we have been looking at for the bottom for months now. We have been looking at short GLD as well which signaled today although there are still a couple of support areas to break. Bigger point is that if rates go higher, the classic relationship of higher gold, higher market should shift to higher market in certain sectors that benefit from such a scenario.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day and hold of the fast moving average although it does look like second time in 2 weeks giving warning about a possible top or at least a correction coming.
Dow (DIA) Similar to SPY without the inside day. At this point, conservative move is to wait for it to take out the recent highs with some volume behind it.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Still in nosebleed territory on the weekly relative strength, but that has not stopped AAPL.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held 83.00 and the fast moving average. Friendly to this index.
GLD 158 is a huge area and if breaks, another leg lower in the cards.
XLF (Financials) Has to clear 16.01 recent high and hold 15.50
IBB (Biotechnology) Cleared old high, made way for the new high
SMH (Semiconductors) Still needs to clear 36.17
XRT (Retail) Closed on the fast moving average.
IYT (Transportation) My next favorite place to look for a buy opportunity.
IYR (Real Estate) 62.81 recent swing high to clear and 62.00 area to hold. Still
OIH (Oil Services) Held up well all things considered.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Gorgeous. If missed the boat, should hold 20.35 which means look for a dip to buy.
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