November 1, 2018
By Mish Schneider
The rally continued as we began November.
Largest percentage gainer of the indices was the Russell 2000.
Thus far, IWM has put in an inside week meaning it is trading within last week’s trading range.
That makes it easy considering we will know a lot more by the end of the day Friday.
And this is an interesting Friday as well, as the jobs number will come out first thing.
Should IWM close out the week above 154.45, last week’s high, that will put a test of the 50-week moving average that sits overhead likely.
This inside week below the breakdown of the 50-week MA is one reason why I’m cautiously riding the bull while holding onto my hat.
So, besides waiting to see what IWM does, why else should I hold back the reins?
The U.S. Dollar, which I featured early this week, gapped lower after making a new yearly high.
What does that mean?
A softer dollar lifted a lot of the commodities today.
Furthermore, the TLTs fell marginally.
What does that mean?
Rates remain firm, although basically unchanged from yesterday.
I would look at 113.50 as a pivotal close in TLTs for the week. Above, and we could see some new bond buyers.
Below and we expect further declines in the TLT to come.
Oil also fell. Oversupply or underdemand?
Hard to say exactly.
Watch USO the US Oil Fund. 13.50 is its pivotal closing number for the week. A close above leaves the uptrend intact.
A close below and next support level comes in at 12.81 or the 200-week moving average.
Is it possible that rates firm, the dollar and oil prices fall, while equities rally?
Of course; but remember, you’re riding a bull into the midterms with only one hand on the reins.
Here is a link to my radio interview on WFN1 Dallas yesterday October 31.
S&P 500 (SPY) 270 support and 275 area big resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) Only a weekly close over 154.45 will get me more bullish. And 149.50 is key support
Dow (DIA) 250.54 is the 50-week MA it is now above and must hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) In best shape and just shy of the 200 DMA at 172.21. Must close above 169.80 to hold the 50-week MA it closed below last week.
KRE (Regional Banks) Best hope for more rally if 53.69 holds, is a move over 55
SMH (Semiconductors) 94.90 key support on the 23-month MA. 104 big resistance.
IYT (Transportation) 181.83 23-month MA support with 194 big resistance
IBB (Biotechnology) Managed to clear the 200-week MA at 104.72 and the 23-month MA at 106.80.
XRT (Retail) Closed over 47.80 and now must end the week above there
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