May 12, 2018
By Mish Schneider
“See these eyes so red
Red like jungle burning bright
Those who feel me near
Pull the blinds and change their minds” David Bowie
I woke up last Friday, with this song in my head.
I cannot help but think about this 3rd (and maybe last) attempt for the market to gain legs on the back of Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM.)
Corporate stock buybacks are the biggest players during this recent run.
That, and hopefuls buying on the strong earnings season.
Yet, other than IWM, the other indices and major sectors are far from the January highs.
Inflation data, after a lot of hype, failed to meet the Fed’s target of 2%.
Then, there is all the other news: North Korea, Iran, Russian probe, Cohen, Tariffs, NAFTA, etc.
Even with strong employment data and steady consumer sentiment, the fear of stagnation looms.
I see a desert landscape, hot and dry, with the threat of a burn out of control should the wind pick up.
Then again, dip buyers persist.
Are bulls putting out the fire with gasoline?
In IWM 160.63 is the all-time high. Last week, IWM traded up to 160.17.
Friday, it traded inside Thursday’s range.
The Transportation IYT, has its the all-time high at 206.73.
Friday, IYT traded up to 193.77, settling at 193.17.
Also notable, is the action in Semiconductors (SMH) and Granny Retail (XRT).
SMH hit the top of the recent trading range. (last swing high April 17th was 106.14). Last week’s high 105.35.
That means, we are looking for SMH to pick up the pace, as this is a highly speculated area of the Modern Family. And quite frankly, the market needs speculators.
Granny Retail (XRT) held clutch support at 44.40 and now, should it clear 46.00, that will help.
A note about Biotechnology (IBB), the fireman’s version of a water hose.
Trump announced plans to cut drug prices on Friday.
Although the initial impact to IBB and the market was negative, the bulls poured gasoline on that fire as well, and everything rebounded.
IBB has to hold 102. Over 107, and we got ourselves a conflagration!
For this week, IWM has to clear the highs and IYT has to clear 195-196.
Then, at least the raging bull fire can gain more momentum, before we see the bears don their rubber suits.
“You've been so long
Well it's been so long
I've been putting out fire with gasoline
Putting out fire with gasoline”
S&P 500 (SPY) Bias now friendly. The tinderbox of issues in the geopolitical world could ignite at any time, so 267-268 is max risk here. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all though more neutral in QQQs
Russell 2000 (IWM) 160.63 all -time high. 158 pivotal support which if fails, would give bears a low risk opportunity to short against the highs. Should it clear ATH’s, a $10 move up is not out of the question
Dow (DIA) Who can forget Terror at 25,000 in the Dow? Not me-so that’s the resistance (250) with now 245 support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Until this fills the gap to 170.93 left on 3/17, I would not go gung ho long. However, 168 is a great place to use a stop loss or reversal