November 19, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Monday the market closed up but it felt as though disaster loomed. Tuesday, the market closed lower yet it feels more solid. The psychology suggests that when we brace for the worst, the not-so-bad seems great! We humans are such a hopeful species. The small caps do look destined to test the underlying moving average as they now have a 2-day correction from the almost match of the 2013 highs. Plus, the reversal occurring on a Monday, set the theme for at least the first part of the week in motion. The Dow, had an inside day to Monday’s range (Tuesday’s range inside the range of Monday), which probably makes Wednesday’s range break either way elucidating. The Real Estate Sector continues to struggle big time, while the Financial sector held firm. Finally, the fourth tell, interest rates, firmed today keeping the 20+ year Long bonds in its Bearish Phase. We go into hump day with a split decision. The next heavyweight contender is the intelligent stock picker.
S&P 500 (SPY) 178 the 10 DMA to defend with a move over Tuesday high encouraging.
Nasdaq (QQQ) 82.70 was my number last week. Still watching that area to see if it can hold.
XLF (Financials) Inside day near the highs
SMH (Semiconductors) My poor semis are now on the 50 DMA with 40.00 a pivotal area
XRT (Retail) Retail Sales number due in the morning with still many retail chains reporting income. Topping candle confirmed unless it clears 87.20
IYT (Transportation) Amazingly similar chart to the retail ETF.
IBB (Biotechnology) The next dance for bulls could be here. Since Aug-3 higher lows on corrections-move over 2013 highs good for $25-30. Plus, holding the 50 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Under last week’s low will not be good.
XHB (Homebuilders) Still digesting recent move
GLD Inside day. 121.85 support or this will head further south
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.00 if crosses should give this some pop
OIH (Oil Services) Reversal candle from the highs in play
XLE (Energy) Like Biotech and Financials, trying to hold and lead
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Confirmed warning phase.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs under 104.11 in trouble.
EWG (Germany) Digesting
FXI (China) Inside day after the big gap up
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