June 16, 2020
By Mish Schneider
Jerome Powell’s talking points today:
NASDAQ did not fill the gap to 244.51 or the island bottom gap.
Whether it will soon, remains to be seen. But once again, with Powell’s more realistic tone, not that much changed with the Economic Modern Family.
The Russell 2000 IWM still remains below both the 50 and 200-week moving averages and is in a weekly bearish phase. The black line is a line in the sand pivotal point.
Granny Retail XRT rose above the 50-WMA but remains under the 200-WMA and is in a weekly recuperation phase.
Biotechnology IBB holds the pivotal black line channel. IBB is in a bullish phase. However, IBB has not taken real leadership as one might expect it to.
Regional Banks KRE tried to rally but still looks weak. Bearish phase, and a move back under 40.00 not so good.
Transportation IYT also sits in a weekly bearish phase. And sits just above the pivotal black line.
Semiconductors remains inside last week’s trading range. In fact, it has 2 inside weeks. That makes it pretty simple, under 139.75 trouble, over 155 off she goes. And yes, SMH is in a bullish phase.
Bottom line 3 of the 6 members are in bearish weekly phases. Retail improved, if it confirms, to a recuperation phase.
The “inside” of the market is not impressive.
Should QQQs fail the 240 level, that would be a good reason to look at volatility.
It is also possible, QQQs gap open tomorrow over 244.51. That will bring buyers there.
Nevertheless, will the Modern Family follow the Fed’s never-ending stimulus money promise or Powell himself, who speaks from the other side of his mouth spewing caution?
Russell 2000 (IWM) 147.20 resistance with support at 142
Dow (DIA) A move over 263.35 clears the 200-DMA-barely made it-needs to confirm
Nasdaq (QQQ) Island top unless trades to 244.51.
KRE (Regional Banks) 41.45 resistance to clear
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside week-so there’s that 139.78 last week’s low-155 resistance
IYT (Transportation) 158 support 168 resistance
IBB (Biotechnology) I give it a T for trying
XRT (Retail) 200-DMA 40.50 support to hold 43.50 resistance
Volatility Index (VXX) 34.50 support-through 38.50 better
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