September 12, 2019
By Mish Schneider
Last night I began with a poem:
Granddad Russell, a rally whoa!
How much further will you go?
And can your wife Gran Retail soar?
Or will XRT stop at forty-four?
The purpose of the poem was to direct your attention to the recent rally in the economic modern family, as well as the rotation into more value stocks.
However, today, the economic modern family traded mixed with either losses or only marginal gains.
Furthermore, money went back into growth stocks, which today outperformed value stocks.
Interestingly, Granny Retail did indeed stop at forty-four (44.00).
With news of potential easing back on tariffs from both China and the U.S., what must the economic modern family show us now?
Plus, tonight I add the levels on DBA and USCI as China also agreed to buy some of the US grains.
The biggest takeaway from the weekly charts, is what happens tomorrow and then any follow through on Monday in the brick and mortal retail sector.
This is because I surmised that the weakest link of the family could soar to 44.00 and then die, hence, infecting the rest of the now fatter and happier family members.
The Russell 2000 IWM merely has to hold above 154.50 area to stay in the game.
Regional Banks KRE has to close the week out over 53.00.
Transportation IYT is close to resistance, but more importantly, has to hold 190.
Retail XRT must clear the death cross over 44.00 and hold there. We will give it until Monday to show us the next path.
Biotechnology IBB saw more specs but needs to hold 102.65 and clear 105.
And Semiconductors did not quite make it to the all-time high, nevetheless, after a bit of a rest, gained in price to come close.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 154.50 now the closest pivotal support. 158 resistance
Dow (DIA) ATH 273.99 made in July. 270 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 192.55 now pivotal support. 195.55 ATH
KRE (Regional Banks) The 50-WMA at 53.01 cleared. Resistance at 54.50.
SMH (Semiconductors) 121.40 pivotal support and then ATH 123.56
IYT (Transportation) 190.00 pivotal support and 194 some resistance
IBB (Biotechnology) The 200 WMA at 102.65 now major support with resistance at 105 or the 50-DMA
XRT (Retail) 44.00-we will see if this spells the top of the move or not.
DBA (Agriculture) 15.02 support now with resistance at 15.72-a weekly close over 15.79 would be impressive
USCI (US Commodity Index) Nicked the 50-DMA today to change into an unconfirmed recuperation phase and now needs to hold 35.75 and really, have a weekly close over 36.20 to look very good