Groundhog's Day: A SPY Tale

February 1, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


We did not have to wait very long for the answer to last night's question after the Golden Cross-digestion and rally or game over? We love instant gratification, especially when positioned on the right side of the trend. Tomorrow the groundhog will make its annual appearance. Last February 1st, the S&P 500 rallied; then on February 2nd there was an inside day, followed by another 12 days of steady upside before the first major selloff of 2011 occurred. Let's see if Groundhog's Day lives up to Bill Murray's legacy.

SPY ChartS&P 500 (SPY) Truth is this did not get to last week's high 133.40. But unless it breaks 132.00 now, that may not mean much.

Russells 2000 (IWM) Alright I exaggerated when I said the target based on the high of the week ending August 5th was 81.00. The high was really 80.99 and today's high 80.90.  Now, through that level no reason to see more unless it breaks 79.45.

NASDQ (QQQ) Overbought now on the weekly and daily Relative Strength Indexes. If first thinking of getting long at these levels, would venture to say a bit late. In fact, a close under 60.20 will be disconcerting.

ETFs:

GLD So unexciting compared to some equities, I got nothing.

XLF (Financials) 14.18 now the number to hold.

XRT (Retail) 56.55 has to clear to get his group exciting again

IBB (Biotechnology) From last night: "Needs to be the first kid on the block to take out the recent high 116.76 to keep the neighborhood cheerful." Jay-Z, Can I Get A...

IYT (Transportation) DOJI which means under today's low a bit troublesome.

XLE (Energy) Holding the 200 DMA by a fingernail. Inside day.

TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Still holding the gap higher from Monday unless it breaks lower than 118.55.

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