February 3, 2019
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
From the Arnold Lieberman Collection
As I have done for the last five years, I consult with Raymond Lo, Master of Feng Shui and the most incredibly accurate predictor of events I have read.
For example, in 2017 he wrote that in October 2018, the water element would replace fire and we would have the start of a bear market.
I wish I could tell you that he is more optimistic for this year.
He is not.
He begins this year’s thoughts with,
“The yin earth element of the pig is sitting on water. The peace and harmony are merely superficial, without foundation and solid support from below.”
Besides predictions of “earthquakes, landslides, collapses of buildings and avalanches”, he sees “flooding and heavy rainstorms.”
So, how might all this water impact the stock market?
His quote: “As water symbolizes fear, there is a lack of optimism in the Pig year and it will bring decline in economic growth and activities leading to longer term setback of the stock market and more economic crisis will come up. As there will not be return of fire year until 2025, we expect a long-lasting bearish market ahead.”
That may be hard to believe when employment numbers gain, the Fed pauses on raising rates and the market has rallied 14% off the lows.
However, we must also take note that on the weekly charts, the Russell 2000 is in a caution phase and Retail is in a Distribution Phase.
Biotechnology did manage to clear the 50-WMA on the close. That puts this in an unconfirmed bullish phase on the weekly chart. But as I have written in the past, this is the most highly speculated sector. The public tends to buy highs and sell lows.
Until we see positive phase changes on the weekly charts in any of the six economic Modern Family, I’d be ready for anything.
Looking back, the previous Pig year was 2007, when signs of trouble in second mortgage business started to emerge leading to the financial tsunami in 2008.
Nevertheles, Lo has some comments on industries that should do well.
“The industries that will perform well in the year of the Pig will be industries related to Wood element and Earth element. Wood industries are environment, fashion, media, books, education, plants and flowers. Earth industries are property, insurance, mining, high tech.”
My translation? Pot is a plant-so still liking the marijuana space. Environment could be good for a positive performance in alternative energy. Publishing, entertainment such as Netflix and mining as in gold and silver could prosper.
Lo says the areas that will not do well are shipping, transportation, and communication. He also predicts banking, machinery and cars as weak sectors.
Translation-Transportation or IYT, as I wrote about last week, is a huge indicator of what will happen.
IYT closed well on Friday, above the EMA at 180.59. That gives us a pivotal point to watch.
I’ve been bearish in the Fins as well. Furthermore, we did very well shorting CBS (communication) in December. Currently flat, we will have eyes on that and others.
Lo ends with, “It is a year facing the conflict between water and fire according to the Chinese zodiac. This will be a year for investors to focus on limiting losses rather than chasing large gains.”
No reason to panic currently. Plus, I will have more for you on the other aspects of the Year of the Pig this week.
Kung hei fat choy!
S&P 500 (SPY) 266.70 is pivotal support. 271-272.65 is the overhead resistance.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 147.54-147.92 is now the pivotal support to hold. 150 resistance
Dow (DIA) 249.85 the 200-DMA a good pivotal point to watch
Nasdaq (QQQ) 166 is support to hold. 170.15 the overhead resistance.
KRE (Regional Banks) 53.00 pivotal support
SMH (Semiconductors) November high before the crash was 99.13. 95 now key support.
IYT (Transportation) 180.34 support to hold 187.65 resistance overhead.
IBB (Biotechnology) 109.94 the 50-WMA and now pivotal
XRT (Retail) Weak and cannot clear the 200-WMA-with 2 inside weeks. If fails 43.00-43.30 not good. It has to clear 44.72 to stay in the game.
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