December 13, 2012
By Mish Schneider
Profit taking certainly dominated the tone of the day. But, one must discern the difference between profit taking and move over. Carefully studying phases, NASDAQ certainly did its part to spook investors on the long side. After the death cross, it closed in a now unconfirmed bear phase. The rest remain bullish, testing fast moving averages and closing on the weaker end of the daily range. Of course, the world waits for Speaker Boehner and President Obama to announce deal or no deal.
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the fast moving average. Stays bullish in phase. Support at 141.85 should today's low break
Russell 2000 (IWM) Sitting on the fast moving average in a bull phase with eyes on 81.50 the 50 DMA below
Dow (DIA) 131 area key support. 132 pivots and back over 132.50 positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Picture perfect combination of a death cross, with prices at the moving average, all of which are converging. Unconfirmed bear phase unless it crosses and closes back above the 200 DMA. important as resistance or place to return above
GLD I would consider shorting this either against 165.20 or under 163.70 and in the middle do nothing
XLF (Financials) 15.92 key support. Then, the 50 DMA becomes critical or a move back over 16.20 keeps picture good
SMH (Semiconductors) As long as this stays in an accumulation phase, will look at dips as buy opportunities
XRT (Retail) Confirmed phase change to warning from bullish in a sector that has to look healthy for the overall market.
IYT (Transportation) Accumulation confirmed provided the 200 DMA holds.
IYR (Real Estate) Has to hold today's low to continue to be a factor
USO (US Oil Fund) Under 31.00 and a leg down is very likely
OIH (Oil Services) Today was the short opportunity which now will look for follow through if breaks 38.50
XLE (Energy) Back in an unconfirmed strong warning phase and yet another reason market could be vulnerable.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed recovery phase if today's low holds
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