April 4, 2013
By Mish Schneider
A constructive session given some more bad economic data and North Korea in the headlines. Friday's job report, I will venture to speculate, is already factored in for worse rather than unchanged or better. Therefore, the surprise could be on the upside if today's technical signals follow through. The Dow had an inside day making a brick wall high possibility more suspect, especially since it held the fast moving average. The Russell 2000 peeked its head over the 50 DMA which is exactly the scenario I wrote about last night: "Sometimes, when instruments get a return move through the 50 DMA, it offers a good low risk long entry." With some confirmation (a hold of the 50 DMA), anything can still happen as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ remain in bullish phases very close to the all-time highs. One caveat-bonds. As signs of a "flight to quality" remain, full blown, buy, buy, buy sentiment also remains at bay.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. No real damage done at this point.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. Unconfirmed Bull phase-if the 50 holds, everyone back in the pool!
Dow (DIA) Inside day. Held the fast moving average.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Only one that did not have an inside day. Got closer to the 50 DMA before bouncing just shy of the fast moving average.
GLD Closed over 150 for now. Possible slingshot low only if today's low holds.
XLF (Financials) Inside day on the 50 DMA. A definite follow the range break setup
IBB (Biotechnology) Did not confirm the brick wall high and had an inside day.
SMH (Semiconductors) Held 34.00 after testing 33.92, which was the low on January 17th, the day it gapped higher. Still in warning phase.
XRT (Retail) After today's rally, thinking those double tops at 70.81 will be history.
IYT (Transportation) Confirmed warning phase, but right under the 50 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) "Probably the first place to look if the sharks swim away." How true that turned out to be! New highs!!!
USO (US Oil Fund) From an unconfirmed warning phase to an unconfirmed distribution phase.
OIH (Oil Services) Like SMH, held the support from the mid-January gap higher.
XLE (Energy) Under the 50 DMA substantially so needs some work now before a new direction up or down
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The party pooper. Until it clears the 200 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Doji and want to see if it can clear 58.00
XHB (Homebuilders) Subs: Inside day
UUP (Dollar Bull) Golden Cross and a nasty looking red candle.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: